TRENDING:

XAU/USD

EUR/USD

Dialogue remain open on between US-Russia on Ukraine

TradeTheNews.com Staff TradeTheNews.com

Notes/Observations

- Risk appetite improved amid hopes of US/Russia talks.

- UK Jan Retail Sales data rebounds as the impact of the omicron variant waned.

Asia

- Japan Jan National CPI Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.6%e; CPI Ex-fresh food (Core) Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.3%e.

- Japan Fin Min Suzuki noted that the recent price rise was driven mostly by increases in energy cost. Needed to continue necessary fiscal support. Reiterated Japan's fiscal situation was becoming severer.

- RBA Board member Harper stated that RBA won't follow pace of US Fed rate hikes; Should be no mystery as to why RBA was being patient.

Russia/Ukraine

- US Sec of State Blinken accepted an invitation to meet with Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov late next week provided Russia did not invade Ukraine.

- President Biden to host meeting on Ukraine on Fri. [Feb 18th] with the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, UK, EU and NATO. To discuss Russian troop build-up on Ukraine border.

Americas

- Fed's Mester (FOMC voter, hawk) supported a March hike with further increases in coming months.

- Fed's Bullard (2022 voter, hawk) reiterated good target was to have fund rates up 100bps by July 1st. Front loading rate increase would send the right signal that FED is serious about inflation control.

- Senator Manchin (D-WV) met with White House chief of staff Klain. President’s top advisers now acknowledge inflation is a major concern that needs to be addressed (Note: o talk of Biden’s BBB package).

- Senate had votes to pass stopgap funding bill, funding the Govt through Mar 11th (as expected).

Energy

- White House stated that US officials discussed with Saudi Arabia an approach to managing energy market pressures from potential Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.13% at 465.14, FTSE +0.18% at 7,551.15, DAX -0.06% at 15,258.69, CAC-40 +0.42% at 6,975.74, IBEX-35 -0.09% at 8,663.60, FTSE MIB +0.09% at 26,693.00, SMI +0.59% at 12,145.04, S&P 500 Futures +0.46%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open mixed and have traded around flat through most of the session so far; improved risk sentiment attributed to easing of tensions around Ukraine; better performing sectors include financials and industrials; laggard sectors include materials and consumer discretionary; reportedly Macquarie looking to take controlling stake of National Grid; earnings expected during the upcoming US session include Deere, PPL and Air Canada.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Hermes [RMS.FR] -4% (earnings).

- Energy: Eni [ENI.IT] +0.5% (earnings), Electricite de France [EDF.FR] -5% (earnings; French govt to acquire stake).

- Financials: NatWest [NWG.UK] -3% (earnings).

- Industrials: Renault [RNO.FR] +1.5% (earnings).

- Communication Services: Ubisoft Entertainment [UBI.FR] +5% (sales).

Speakers

- ECB's Kazimir (Slovakia) express support to end of QE program in Aug 2022 an dmaintain flexibility on the timetable for rate hikes. Urged gradual steps in tightening monetary policy.

- ECB Vasle (Slovenia) stated that he favored a quicker adjustment of monetary policy.

- Russia to conduct strategic deterrence drills on Sat, Feb 19th; President Putin to monitor.

- Russia govt spokesperson Peskov stated that breaches of cease-fire arrangement in Donbas was potentially very dangerous.

- Ukraine Defense Min stated that the probability of a large scale escalation was low.

- Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE): Have record 80 ceasefire violations in Ukraine as of Friday, Feb 18th.

- Singapore Fin Min Wong budget speech noted that expected to see a steady recovery in 2022; but risks remained.

Currencies/Fixed income

- FX market was steady as the prospect of a Russia-U.S. meeting reduced any demand for safe haven flows. Focus on the upcoming Blinken-Lavrov talks schedule for next week. The.USD. JPY and CHF currencies to remain highly sensitive to broad investor sentiment.

- EUR/USD steady at 1.1370 area. Dealers noted that ECB would likely prove more cautious than the markets were currently priced on the rate front.

Economic data

- (NL) Netherlands Feb Consumer Confidence Index: -30 v -28 prior.

- (FI) Finland Jan CPI M/M: N +1.2% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.4% v 3.5% prior.

- (FR) France Q4 ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.4% v 7.8%e (lowest since 2008); Mainland Unemployment Rate: 7.2% v 7.6%e.

- (UK) Jan Retail Sales (ex-auto/fuel) M/M: 1.7% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 7.2% v 7.9%e.

- (UK) Jan Retail Sales (including auto/fuel) M/M: 1.9% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 9.1% v 9.4%e.

- (SE) Sweden Jan CPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.6%e; CPI Level: 350.56 v 349.35e.

- (SE) Sweden Jan CPIF M/M: -0.5% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.9%e.

- (SE) Sweden Jan CPIF (ex-energy) M/M: +0.1% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 1.9%e.

- (SE) Sweden Q4 Total Number of Employees Y/Y: 4.0% v 2.7% prior.

- (DK) Denmark Feb Consumer Confidence Indicator: -3.2 v -1.5 prior.

- (TR) Turkey Feb Consumer Confidence: 71.2 v 73.2 prior.

- (CH) Swiss Q4 Industrial Output Y/Y: 7.3% v 8.5% prior; Industry & Construction Output Y/Y: 6.2% v 7.2% prior.

- (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): 136.3K v 106.6K tons prior.

- (FR) France Jan Final CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3% prelim; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.9% prelim; CPI Ex-Tobacco Index: 107.30 v 107.30e.

- (FR) France Jan Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prelim; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.3% prelim.

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Feb 11th (RUB): 14.42T v 14.35T prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Current Account Balance: €22.6B v €23.6B prior.

- (PL) Poland Jan Sold Industrial Output M/M: -3.0% v -7.3%e; Y/Y: 19.2% v 14.7%e.

- (PL) Poland Jan Employment M/M: 1.5% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 1.7%e.

- (PL) Poland Jan Average Gross Wages M/M: -8.7% v -8.6%e; Y/Y:9.5% v 10.1%e.

- (PL) Poland Jan PPI M/M: 1.3% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 14.8% v 14.4%e.

- (PT) Portugal Dec Current Account Balance: -€0.7B v -€0.7B prior.

- (IT) Italy Dec Current Account Balance: €4.4B v €4.7B prior.

- (GR) Greece Dec Current Account Balance: -€1.7B v -€2.5B prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Construction Output M/M: -4.0% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -3.9% v +0.4% prior.

- (BE) Belgium Feb Consumer Confidence: +1 v -2 prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR1.2B vs. ZAR1.2B indicated in I/L 2029, 2046 and 2050 Bonds.

Looking ahead

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£0.5B, £0.5B and £1.0B respectively).

- 06:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserve w/e Feb 11th: No est v $632.0B prior.

- 06:30 (IS) Iceland to sell 2024 and 2026 RIKB Bonds.

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 07:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed).

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:00 (NL) ECB’s Elderson (Netherlands, SSM member).

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Retail Sales M/M: -2.1%e v +0.7% prior; Retail Sales (ex-auto) M/M: -1.5%e v +1.1% prior.

- 10:00 (US) Jan Existing Home Sales: 6.10Me v 6.18M prior.

- 10:00 (US) Jan Leading Index: 0.2%e v 0.8% prior.

- 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Feb Advance Consumer Confidence: -8.0e v -8.5 prior.

- 10:45 (US) Fed’s Evans and Waller on panel.

- 11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close (Fitch on France, Denmark, Poland sovereign rating; S&P on France, Estonia sovereign ratings; Moody’s on Cyprus, Iceland sovereign ratings).

- 11:00 (RU) Russia 2021 Annual GDP Y/Y: +4.5%e v -3.0% prior.

- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count.

- 13:00 (IT) ECB’s Panetti (Italy) on digital currencies.

Author

TradeTheNews.com Staff

TradeTheNews.com

Trade The News is the active trader’s most trusted source for live, real-time breaking financial news and analysis.

GBP/USD surges to multi-day peaks past 1.3250

GBP/USD leaves behind Friday’s small pullback and advances past 1.3250 level, or five-day highs, on Monday. Cable’s upside follows extra losses in the Greenback, while traders continue to assess the geopolitical front and upcoming key events.

EUR/USD picks up extra pace north of 1.1400

EUR/USD extends its recovery past 1.1400 the figure as the NA session draws to a close on Monday. Indeed, the pair advances for the third straight day amid the persistent offered bias in the US Dollar. Meanwhile, market participants keep gearing up for the ECB Forum in Sintra and the release of critical US labour market data.

Gold struggles to attract investors

Gold remains under marked selling pressure, holding on just above the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce at the beginning of the week. The precious metal reverses two daily advances in a row as renewed effervescence in the Middle East revive inflation concerns and bolster Fed rate hike expectations.

Strategy unveils plan allowing Bitcoin sales to fund stock buybacks, dividends and reserves

Strategy (MSTR) has unveiled a Digital Credit Framework to strengthen the company’s financial standing. Under the new framework, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC) will pivot from its previous accumulation strategy, opting to sell BTC in order to boost liquidity, fund dividend payments, execute stock buybacks, and strengthen cash reserves.

Just like Fed, is BoJ’s independence under threat?

When talking about central bank independence, most of the focus has been on Donald Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. But a similar story, a quieter one for now, seems to be happening on the other side of the Pacific: Japan’s government may be testing the Bank of Japan’s independence.

Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of Sintra this week. The ECB Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks. The new boss at the Fed, who has clearly said that the Fed should stop explaining everything, will need to talk – and traders should listen.