Here are our Top 10 Takeaways for the ECB Rate Decision and their implications for the euro. While it may appear that there are the EUR positive comments offset the negatives, Draghi's emphasis on the possibility of more stimulus is the most important takeaway from today's comments.
Top 10 Takeaways from April ECB Meeting
- ECB Does Not Exclude Further Easing with Conventional and Unconventional Measures - EUR Negative
- QE, Rate Cut, Negative Deposit Rates & Narrowing Rate Corridor all discussed at meeting - EUR Negative
- EUR becoming increasingly important but not a policy target - EUR Negative
- Recovery Proceeding as Expected, Data Consistent with Moderate Growth, Late Easter Clouding Data - EUR Positive
- Risks to Economic Outlook Still Downside - EUR Negative
- ECB Says Biggest Fear is Protracted Stagnation - EUR Negative
- Council Disagreed on how March data affect s Medium Term Outlook -EUR Positive
- CPI is not as weak as PPI- EUR Positive
- Deflation Risks have not increased, Pickup in Prices Expected in April - EUR Positive
- ECB Happy with Forward Guidance- EUR Positive
There is support in the EUR/USD at 1.3700 and if the currency pair breaks below this point, the next stop will be 1.3650. A rally back above 1.3835, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2011 to 2012 decline in March is needed to erase the downside momentum but we think EUR/USD is headed lower not higher.
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