GBP/USD takes another shot at retaking 1.47

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD surges past 1.15, stopped by W/M R1

“The rug has been pulled from the dollar, and the euro can go nowhere but up.”

- Westpac Banking Corp. (based on Bloomberg)

• Pair’s Outlook

  Weakness of the Dollar transferred to the new working week, as another piece of soft North American data pushed EUR/USD beyond 1.15. By violating multi-month resistances, including the October 2015 high, the pair was only capped by the weekly and monthly R1s placed around 1.1538. This is the initial supply for Tuesday, but the rally until the second bunch of resistances (weekly/monthly R2) at 1.1619/26 is not off the table. Now the cross is trading at its peak levels since August of the last year and weekly technical indicators suggest the uptrend is ready to continue.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  With a drop of three percentage points, the SWFX market share of the bulls tumbled as low as 37%. 50-pip pending orders rose to 52% in bullish favour, as 100-pip commands are now 52% short on EUR/USD.

GBP/USD takes another shot at retaking 1.47

“From a technical point of view, and despite the rally extended, the upside is looking slightly exhausted, as in the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators lack clear directional strength, having turned modestly lower within positive territory.”

- FXStreet

• Pair’s Outlook

  On Monday the Sterling managed to prolong its bullish momentum and post rather solid gains against the US Dollar. The Cable’s upside volatility was limited by the 1.47 major level yesterday, which could prevent the pair from edging higher today as well. The nearest resistance is still represented by the weekly R1 and the Bollinger band around 1.4740, while the weekly PP represents immediate support at 1.4563. According to technical indicators, the GBP/USD currency pair is to continue appreciating over the day, but poor UK data could cause the exchange rate to return towards the 1.46 mark.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  Bears keep outnumbering the bulls by four percentage points. Meanwhile, the portion of orders to purchase the Pound increased from 44 to 51%.

USD/JPY puts 106.00 to the test

“Dollar-yen looks like a lemming hurling itself off a cliff, and the yen bulls may end up feeling a bit like lemmings in due course. Recession, capital outflows and long speculative positions, yet still the yen rallies towards USD/JPY 100.”

- Societe Generale (based on Business Recorder)

• Pair’s Outlook

  Even though the Greenback managed to edge higher against the Yen yesterday, thus, confirming the bullish recovery, but gains accounted for only 20 pips. With such a small rally, risks of the USD/JPY currency pair sustaining another serious loss persist. As a result, the Buck could drop under the 106.00 major level, the lowest level in almost 20 months. The closest area to limit the losses rests around 105.70, represented by the Bollinger band, whereas the second target is the 105.20 mark, namely the 20-month low. Furthermore, a complete breach of the 106.00 level might spark the BoJ to intervene, ultimately causing investors to sell the Japanese currency.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  Today 72% of traders hold long positions, unchanged since Monday. At the same time, the share of buy orders surged from 45 to 72%.

Gold at risk of losing steam as 1,300 mark fails

“I think gold can reach $1,300-$1,400 in the second quarter. Investors are following the yen-dollar movement and central bank decisions, and the ETF inflows are a very good sign.”

- Wing Fung Financial Group (based on CNBC)

• Pair’s Outlook

  The winning streak of gold futures tried to extend as far as 1,304 on Monday, but the bears regained momentum by the end of US trading and closed the spot below the vital 1,300 mark. The closest daily resistance is the upper Bollinger band again, placed at 1,295.73. Although the 2015 peak at 1,307.06 will remain the key target level for the bulls in the nearest future, there are growing risks the goal will not be accomplished. On top of that, the aggregate daily technical signal is currently mixed.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  Bullish side of the SWFX market regained as many as ten percentage points between yesterday and today mornings. Owing to the bullion's failure to fix the gains above 1,300 resulted in closure of a number of bearish positions that unexpectedly took profit. Now the SWFX market is only 57% short on gold, down from 67% about 24 hours ago.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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