Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD's advance contained by weekly PP
“The tide right now is flowing toward dollar weakness.”
- Chapdelaine Foreign Exchange (based on Reuters)
- Pair’s Outlook
As expected, EUR/USD's development, prior to the ECB event later on Thursday, remained relatively calm on April 18. Yesterday the added value amounted to only 12 pips, while the similar situation being observed on early Tuesday morning. We see the weekly pivot as the first noticeable resistance at 1.1327 and in the short-term the pair is likely to terminate around here. We would allow for a medium-term slippage in the direction of 1.12, where the monthly pivot coincides with the 55-day SMA and weekly S1 for the moment.
-
Traders’ Sentiment
42% of all SWFX positions are bullish in the morning on Tuesday, no change for a fifth day in a row. Alongside, only 38% of all 50-pip pending commands are positive, as the number increases to 41% for 100-pip orders.
GBP/USD attempts to climb over 1.43
“While the undertone for GBP is positive, the current price action suggests that this pair is still caught in a broad consolidation range.”
- UOB (based on FXStreet)
-
Pair’s Outlook
The Sterling surprisingly recovered on Monday, due to the European stock market rebound triggering demand for riskier assets. As a result, the Cable completely erased last week’s gains, also breaking out of the falling wedge pattern earlier than anticipated. The bullish momentum is now likely to prevail, leading the exchange rate closer towards the resistance line at 1.45. The closest area to limit the gains is represented by the weekly R1 at 1.4339, but we should not rule out the possibility of the fundamentals pushing the GBP/USD pair back towards 1.42, as technical indicators retain their bearish signals in all timeframes.
-
Traders’ Sentiment
Bulls lost some numbers, as 57% of traders hold long positions today, compared to 65% on Monday. Meanwhile, the portion of orders to sell the Pound edged higher, namely from 55 to 64%.
USD/JPY takes another shot at surging over 109.50
“We see good opportunity now to hedge against U.S. dollar strength after the strong rally in Asian currencies in the first quarter.”
- Credit Suisse (based on Bloomberg)
-
Pair’s Outlook
Amid the return of risk-on sentiment, the US Dollar managed to strengthen against the Japanese Yen on Monday, even stabilising above the immediate resistance cluster. The weekly PP and the monthly S2 are now supporting the USD/JPY currency pair, but risks of another decline taking place persisting. In case demand around 108.70 is weak and the Greenback fails to climb over the 109.50 level, the pair will once again face the 18-monh low and the weekly S1 circa 107.65. On the other hand, if the bullish momentum prevails, the weekly R1 will be the first intraday target. Technical studies, however, are in favour of the bearish scenario.
-
Traders’ Sentiment
Bullish market sentiment returned to its previous Tuesday’s level of 70%, whereas the share of buy orders skyrocketed from 17 to 76%.
Gold erases gains, puts 55-day SMA at new risk
“Gold is looking weak at the moment as there is some risk-on sentiment in the market and equities have rebounded.”
- a trader in Hong Kong (based on CNBC)
-
Pair’s Outlook
Monday's intraday rally was extending through the weekly and monthly pivot points at 1,239/41. However, by the end of US session the bears managed to retake the lead and sent the bullion into red. Now the near-term cap is established at those pivots, which is set to renew attempts of testing the 55-day SMA, currently at 1,229.27. A slide below here is going to change the market focus and the bears will begin targeting the 1,201/1,198 zone guarded by the weekly S2 and monthly S1. Meanwhile, daily technicals suspect XAU/USD may have a chance to commence a revival.
-
Traders’ Sentiment
Bearish advantage over the bulls is down to only ten percentage points by Tuesday morning. Yesterday the gap amounted to as many as 18 pp. This has been a fifth consecutive day of bullish gains in the SWFX market.
Don't miss our new daily forecasts for EUR USD, GBP USD, USD CAD and USD JPY!
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.