RBA hoping for improved consumer activity

Today's Highlights

• Euro falling on potential ECB rate cuts

• RBA hoping for improved consumer activity

FX Market Overview

We heard overnight that the likelihood of an Australian interest rate cut is diminished by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s confidence that the consumer sector will rebound. It is not a view shared by all analysts and commentators but the Australian Dollar strengthened marginally on the news. We will get wages data from Australia overnight tonight. The RBA will clearly be hoping for an improvement in last month’s 0.6% rise in the wages index. I am less confident of that.

We will get inflation data from the UK and US today. Neither dataset is likely to produce any noticeable inflation so, if the data's as forecast, the Pound and the US Dollar will most likely remain fairly sanguine. However, against the Euro, both are looking very strong. The Euro-US Dollar rate has fallen to $1.06 and seems set to move further south. The Sterling - Euro rate is testing resistance at €1.42 and could make another cent of gain without breaking any major resistance lines on traders’ charts.

The US Dollar strength mentioned above is also dragging the Canadian Dollar along with it. The loonie made gains yesterday in spite of a fall in manufacturing shipments. The 1.5% fall was well below forecasts and substantially worse than last month’s decline. The fall in demand for raw materials and energy products and the fall in the value of those commodities are very evident in this data. The Canadian dollar, left to its own devices, would be weaker but the strength of the currency of Canada’s main export market is masking that weakness. We will hear the Bank of Canada’s review this afternoon. Perhaps they can shed some light on the likely path of the Canadian Dollar.

The rest of today will produce some tier 2 data but nothing that is likely to be market moving. Perhaps the G20 leaders can talk about ISIL, Paris and Syria without having to worry about economics. Because we all know that is the real challenge.

I’ll leave you with a story you may have seen online but which I thought was rather sweet. A picture is circulating across the interweb showing an elderly man helping a young guy with his tie. Apparently, the young man was struggling to work out how to tie it and was suited and booted for an interview or an important meeting. An elderly couple were nearby and the wife noticed his dilemma and asked whether he knew how to do it. The chap said he didn’t and the woman ushered her husband across to show him how. Isn’t it funny how such an ordinary act can capture peoples’ sense of community? Random acts of kindness are like that; infectious.