The American dollar has pulled back this Monday, in what seems a take-profit movement ahead of FOMC meeting later this week. Stocks bullish momentum can extend into the Asian session, dragging the JPY lower across the board. The EUR and the GBP however, are far from reversing as both currencies have stalled against the greenback, below last Friday's opening levels.
The dollar corrected lower this Monday, extending its decline early in the US session, as the local data missed expectations. The NY Empire State Manufacturing survey indicated that the business activity expanded at a modest pace, reaching 6.9 in February against the 7.78 of the previous month, while Industrial Production fell in the same month for the third straight month, weighed by a tumble in automobile production. The weak data boosted equities, as the US indexes soared, amid diminishing chances of a hawkish FED this week, following sluggish economic growth figures.
The EUR/USD pair corrected higher, reaching a daily high of 1.0618 before settling below the 1.0600 figure, and the 1 hour chart shows that the early upward potential has lost momentum, as the technical indicators retrace from overbought levels, whilst the price's advance failed to overcome the 100 SMA, a few pips above the current level. In the 4 hours chart the price is above a flat 20 SMA, for the first time since late February, whilst the technical indicators head higher although still below their mid-lines. The upward corrective movement could extend further, particularly on renewed strength above the 1.0600 figure, albeit the bearish dominant trend remains intact, and will likely resume with a break below the 1.0550 level.
Support levels: 1.0550 1.0510 1.0470
Resistance levels: 1.0600 1.0645 1.0690
The Japanese yen weakened in the crosses, with the EUR recovery helping the EUR/JPY add around 150 pips during the first day of the week. The EUR/JPY 1 hour chart shows that the price struggles around a bearish 100 SMA at the current level, with the 200 SMA at 130.20, whilst the technical indicators maintain their bullish strength near overbought territory, supporting some further advances. In the 4 hours chart the Momentum indicator heads higher right below the 100 level, while the RSI also heads north, but remains below 50, all of which suggest this latest recovery may remain as corrective, particularly if the pair fails to extend its gains above the 129.10 level, the immediate strong resistance. Back below 128.20, should suggest the upward movement is complete and see the pair resuming the slide, back towards the 127.00 level.
Support levels: 128.20 127.50 126.90
Resistance levels: 128.65 129.10 129.50
The GBP/USD pair posted a tepid recovery, reaching a daily high of 1.4852 before stalling. There won't be any relevant data in the UK until next Wednesday, with the release of the BOE's Minutes and the monthly employment figures. In the meantime, the pair can extend its upward corrective movement, as the short term picture maintains a bullish tone. In the 1 hour chart, the price has found buying interest in a now bullish 20 SMA currently around 1.4785, whilst the technical indicators have turned flat near overbought territory. In the 4 hours chart the technical indicators maintain their strong bullish slopes, but remain below their mid-lines, whilst the price stalled right around a strongly bearish 20 SMA around the mentioned daily high. If the price manages to extend beyond it, the rally may extend up to 1.4950 without actually affecting the longer term bearish trend. A break below 1.4785 on the other hand, should confirm the upward corrective movement is complete, and see the pair returning towards its recent lows around the 1.4700 level.
Support levels: 1.4810 1.4785 1.4740
Resistance levels: 1.4850 1.4890 1.4925
The USD/JPY pair has shown no signs of life at the beginning of the week, confined to a 40 pips range for the past 24 hours. Trading a few pips above its daily opening, the pair was trapped between dollar weakness and stocks strength, as the latest tends to have a negative effect in the Japanese currency. During the upcoming Asian session, the country will release its Trade Balance figures, and the deficit is expected to have shrunk in February to ¥-1,050.0B from previous ¥-1,177.5B. In the meantime, the 1 hour chart shows a mild bullish tone with the price holding above a flat 100 SMA and the Momentum indicator aiming higher above its mid-line, whilst the RSI stands flat around 54. In the 4 hours chart the technical indicators stand directionless around their mid-lines, maintaining a neutral stance. The pair needs to advance firmly above the 121.60 price zone to be able to retest the multi-year high posted last week at 122.02, with some steady gains above this last opening doors for a steadier advance up to the 125.00 level during the upcoming weeks.
Support levels: 121.05 120.65 120.30
Resistance levels: 121.50 121.95 122.40
The Aussie was also benefited by a weaker dollar, with the AUD/USD pair reaching a daily high of 0.7679 before retracing. The lower high daily basis has made of this latest upward move an upward correction rather than the beginning of a recovery, with the market eyeing upcoming RBA meeting's minutes later this week, and waiting for some tips over a possible upcoming rate hike. The short term picture shows that the pair is turning bearish, as in the 1 hour chart, the price struggles around a flat 20 SMA whilst the technical indicators present a mild bearish slope in neutral territory. In the 4 hours chart the price is moving back and forth around a flat 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator gains bearish strength below the 100 level, and the RSI heads lower around 47, all of which increases the chances of a downward continuation, particularly on a break below the 0.7605 support.
Support levels: 0.7640 0.7605 0.7575
Resistance levels: 0.7690 0.7735 0.7770
EUR/USD Current price: 1.10588
View Live Chart for the EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair corrected higher, reaching a daily high of 1.0618 before settling below the 1.0600 figure, and the 1 hour chart shows that the early upward potential has lost momentum, as the technical indicators retrace from overbought levels, whilst the price's advance failed to overcome the 100 SMA, a few pips above the current level. In the 4 hours chart the price is above a flat 20 SMA, for the first time since late February, whilst the technical indicators head higher although still below their mid-lines. The upward corrective movement could extend further, particularly on renewed strength above the 1.0600 figure, albeit the bearish dominant trend remains intact, and will likely resume with a break below the 1.0550 level.
Support levels: 1.0550 1.0510 1.0470
Resistance levels: 1.0600 1.0645 1.0690
EUR/JPY Current price: 128.54
View Live Chart for the EUR/JPYThe Japanese yen weakened in the crosses, with the EUR recovery helping the EUR/JPY add around 150 pips during the first day of the week. The EUR/JPY 1 hour chart shows that the price struggles around a bearish 100 SMA at the current level, with the 200 SMA at 130.20, whilst the technical indicators maintain their bullish strength near overbought territory, supporting some further advances. In the 4 hours chart the Momentum indicator heads higher right below the 100 level, while the RSI also heads north, but remains below 50, all of which suggest this latest recovery may remain as corrective, particularly if the pair fails to extend its gains above the 129.10 level, the immediate strong resistance. Back below 128.20, should suggest the upward movement is complete and see the pair resuming the slide, back towards the 127.00 level.
Support levels: 128.20 127.50 126.90
Resistance levels: 128.65 129.10 129.50
GBP/USD Current price: 1.4827
View Live Chart for the GBP/USDThe GBP/USD pair posted a tepid recovery, reaching a daily high of 1.4852 before stalling. There won't be any relevant data in the UK until next Wednesday, with the release of the BOE's Minutes and the monthly employment figures. In the meantime, the pair can extend its upward corrective movement, as the short term picture maintains a bullish tone. In the 1 hour chart, the price has found buying interest in a now bullish 20 SMA currently around 1.4785, whilst the technical indicators have turned flat near overbought territory. In the 4 hours chart the technical indicators maintain their strong bullish slopes, but remain below their mid-lines, whilst the price stalled right around a strongly bearish 20 SMA around the mentioned daily high. If the price manages to extend beyond it, the rally may extend up to 1.4950 without actually affecting the longer term bearish trend. A break below 1.4785 on the other hand, should confirm the upward corrective movement is complete, and see the pair returning towards its recent lows around the 1.4700 level.
Support levels: 1.4810 1.4785 1.4740
Resistance levels: 1.4850 1.4890 1.4925
USD/JPY Current price: 121.40
View Live Chart for the USD/JPYThe USD/JPY pair has shown no signs of life at the beginning of the week, confined to a 40 pips range for the past 24 hours. Trading a few pips above its daily opening, the pair was trapped between dollar weakness and stocks strength, as the latest tends to have a negative effect in the Japanese currency. During the upcoming Asian session, the country will release its Trade Balance figures, and the deficit is expected to have shrunk in February to ¥-1,050.0B from previous ¥-1,177.5B. In the meantime, the 1 hour chart shows a mild bullish tone with the price holding above a flat 100 SMA and the Momentum indicator aiming higher above its mid-line, whilst the RSI stands flat around 54. In the 4 hours chart the technical indicators stand directionless around their mid-lines, maintaining a neutral stance. The pair needs to advance firmly above the 121.60 price zone to be able to retest the multi-year high posted last week at 122.02, with some steady gains above this last opening doors for a steadier advance up to the 125.00 level during the upcoming weeks.
Support levels: 121.05 120.65 120.30
Resistance levels: 121.50 121.95 122.40
AUD/USD Current price: 0.7645
View Live Chart for the AUD/USDThe Aussie was also benefited by a weaker dollar, with the AUD/USD pair reaching a daily high of 0.7679 before retracing. The lower high daily basis has made of this latest upward move an upward correction rather than the beginning of a recovery, with the market eyeing upcoming RBA meeting's minutes later this week, and waiting for some tips over a possible upcoming rate hike. The short term picture shows that the pair is turning bearish, as in the 1 hour chart, the price struggles around a flat 20 SMA whilst the technical indicators present a mild bearish slope in neutral territory. In the 4 hours chart the price is moving back and forth around a flat 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator gains bearish strength below the 100 level, and the RSI heads lower around 47, all of which increases the chances of a downward continuation, particularly on a break below the 0.7605 support.
Support levels: 0.7640 0.7605 0.7575
Resistance levels: 0.7690 0.7735 0.7770
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