In case the rupee weakens further today, then importers and short sellers will be forced to cover and we could see rupee nearing towards 60.00 against the US dollar in the inter-bank market. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the RBI has been gobbling up excess dollars through forward swapping. US economic data releases in the next three days and the European central bank meeting are the key global risk for the rupee.
RBI policy meet
RBI governor has declared that he's done with raising interest rates since any price spike in farm products would now be seasonal, and is ready to lower them if there are signs of the accelerated easing of price pressures. SLR cut of 0.50 percent and increasing the limits on foreign remittances is an indication of the trend towards normalcy for Indian currency markets.
Our View: It is upto the government to control prices of living essentials. Higher base price effect of last year will bring down headline inflation. It is the inflation outlook which will determine interest rate. The Budget will be the key for the short term.
Usd/inr June 2014: A break of 59.67 will result in 60.10 and 60.36. Initial support is at 59.49 and there will be sellers only below 59.67
Euro/inr June 2014: It needs to trade over 80.90 to target 81.36-81.76. Initial support is at 80.90 and there will be sellers as long as euro/inr trades below 8090
Gbp/Inr June 2014: It needs to trade over 100.05 to target 100.20-100.75. Initial support 99.61 and there will be another wave of selling only below 99.61
Jpy/Inr June 2014: It needs t0 trade over 58.05 to target 58.56-58.88. There will be sellers only below 58.05 today.
RBI policy meet
RBI governor has declared that he's done with raising interest rates since any price spike in farm products would now be seasonal, and is ready to lower them if there are signs of the accelerated easing of price pressures. SLR cut of 0.50 percent and increasing the limits on foreign remittances is an indication of the trend towards normalcy for Indian currency markets.
Our View: It is upto the government to control prices of living essentials. Higher base price effect of last year will bring down headline inflation. It is the inflation outlook which will determine interest rate. The Budget will be the key for the short term.
Usd/inr June 2014: A break of 59.67 will result in 60.10 and 60.36. Initial support is at 59.49 and there will be sellers only below 59.67
Euro/inr June 2014: It needs to trade over 80.90 to target 81.36-81.76. Initial support is at 80.90 and there will be sellers as long as euro/inr trades below 8090
Gbp/Inr June 2014: It needs to trade over 100.05 to target 100.20-100.75. Initial support 99.61 and there will be another wave of selling only below 99.61
Jpy/Inr June 2014: It needs t0 trade over 58.05 to target 58.56-58.88. There will be sellers only below 58.05 today.
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