Basing on the conclusions here below, it is necessary to try and understand the situation of emerging major changes to see if it is appropriate to insist on this investment or if it is better to collect the profit coming from the recent rebound and then wait and see.
Last week we commented on the situation of the Brazilian real, while we are now going to discuss on the South African Rand. The graph shows how, from the start of the bull market in 2011, the bullish trend of USDZAR is quite regular with the two 200 and 255 days averages that have always dammed every attempt at reversal. It is evident how the area between 10.18 and 10.35 proves to be crucial in terms of support. The cyclic analysis is also helpful.
Indeed, there is a 110 days cycle that has been intercepting with some precision the top of USDZAR from 2011; the next cyclical top ( so the maximum weakness of the Rand ) is scheduled for early July, together with the seasonality of emerging currencies analyzed here below. Obviously, in order to meet this appointment, we will have to wait for an upward reversal, that is why it is not a recommended to take long positions on the Rand at the moment.
Last week we commented on the situation of the Brazilian real, while we are now going to discuss on the South African Rand. The graph shows how, from the start of the bull market in 2011, the bullish trend of USDZAR is quite regular with the two 200 and 255 days averages that have always dammed every attempt at reversal. It is evident how the area between 10.18 and 10.35 proves to be crucial in terms of support. The cyclic analysis is also helpful.
Indeed, there is a 110 days cycle that has been intercepting with some precision the top of USDZAR from 2011; the next cyclical top ( so the maximum weakness of the Rand ) is scheduled for early July, together with the seasonality of emerging currencies analyzed here below. Obviously, in order to meet this appointment, we will have to wait for an upward reversal, that is why it is not a recommended to take long positions on the Rand at the moment.
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