Malcolm Graham-Wood
Independent Analyst
Another drifty day for crude oil, the fundamentals say that we still have a glut and one that isn't going to change anytime soon. Analysts forecast a stock build of 3m barrels in the API stats tonight although the product situation is far from clear. At the moment crude oil stock build is offsetting supply side contraction and will weigh on oil prices to a large extent. On stocks, it is worth mentioning the natural gas price, nearly back down to $2 as we come to the end of the injection season but thee is a significant surplus so only an early and very cold winter will bring support to Henry Hub.
Regulars who know I watch the retail gasoline market in the US are now getting in before the stats, a blog reader resident Florida, mailed me to say that he filled up at the weekend at less than two bucks a gallon! Indeed last nights numbers bear him out, whilst the US overall was down nearly 5 cents a gallon at $2.29, the Gulf Coast was indeed $1.95, the cheapest in the land.
The 5th Plenum in China continues and not to be outdone the FOMC meets this afternoon and tomorrow but with no press conference called no change is likely, I mean we cant do anything without the press can we?
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