Adam
Narczewski
PROFILE:
• Current Job: Deputy Regional Director at XTB Poland
• Career: Market analyst at XTB Poland. Frequent guest of TV shows on TVN CNBC, CNBC Europe & World, Polsat News.
View profile at FXStreet
Adam Narczewski is currently the Deputy Regional Director and a market analyst at XTB Poland. He has explored the secrets of finance at Winthrop University in South Carolina (USA) where he acquired invaluable experience. He specializes in international markets, fundamental analysis and practical application of options and in investing. Trades forex on international markets and stocks on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Adam is a candidate to the CFA designation, also a speaker on seminars regarding structured instruments, financial engineering and advanced financial instruments. Adam is a frequent guest of television programs in Poland - TV Biznes, TVN CNBC, CNBC Europe & World, Polsat News and radio show.
Do you think year-end profit taking can affect dollar’s trend? If so, for how long?
No, I do not take such scenario into account. Sure, by year-end some corrective movements could happen but the dollar should keep appreciating. The QE program has basically ended, the U.S economy is expanding, sentiment towards the USD is positive - all these pro-dollar factors should keep the american currency strong.The USD/JPY fell nearly 400 pips from Dec 8th highs at 121.80 before finding support at the 23% Fibo correction level of 117.90. Do you see further declines or a good point to buy there?
It all depends if you are long-term or short-term trader. For the next couple of weeks I expect a rebound towards the 119.00-120.00 area. In the first quarter though the USDJPY should stabilize around 118.00 in order to keep advancing over the 120.00 throughout 2015.Yves Kuhn from BIL, said recently that he has never seen such a big consensus in 20 years of investment life since currently market's questions are only over how much the Euro will fall. Is it a signal to be a contrarian?
That is not signal to me. Most of the analysts expected the Japanese Yen and the Australian Dollar to weaken and these forecasts realized. Of course, the risks of forecasts not realizing is minimal. Though we have to take intothat if the ECB does not extend its QE program, there is a big chance of a short squeeze on the EUR/USD.How long can the BoJ rely on yen weakness to import inflation given recent haven demand?
The recent appreciation of the Japanese Yen has not been strong enough so that BoJ members should be concerned. I still see the USD/JPY climbing way over 120.00 next year. I would expect dovish signals from the BoJ if the Yen declines to the 110.00 area against the USD.How soon will we have QE if today's TLTRO is a flop?
The TLTRO results were close to expectations. In such case, a realistic deadline for the expansion of QE by the ECB would be January/February of next year. If Mario Draghi does not announce it in January, I expect him to at least mention the possibility.What odds do you place on an exit from the Eurozone (Greece) by this time next year?
Very low probability. The political situation in Greece becomes complicated but the current ruling party could be able to choose a president without general elections. That should calm markets down.
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