KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
Headlines
Zloty and forint firm on Greek hopes and strong PMI’s
Regional focus on US payrolls and Greek referendum
The Polish zloty and the Hungarian forint firmed yesterday as risk-on sentiment returned partly to global markets. Obviously, there were hopes that the Greek deal remained alive, but domestic/regional factors could be supportive too as released Central European manufacturing PMIs rose significantly in June. The indices stand currently visibly above the key 50 point level indicating that regional economies (and their industrial sectors) are still in a very good shape and suggesting that industrial production and exports should remain strong in the coming months.
Today, the focus will shift from Greece to the US with the upcoming payrolls release constituting the main trading event. We see upside risks for the payrolls and thus have a positive bias on US yields. This, in turn, might not be a positive signal for the emerging markets universe including Polish and Hungarian assets. Moreover, there could be pre-positioning ahead of the Greek referendum scheduled for Sunday. In this respect, it is worth noting that there will be a national holiday celebrated in the Czech Republic next Monday, so Czech markets will not open at the time when global markets start absorbing the outcome of the Greek referendum.
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays in tight channel above 1.0750
EUR/USD continues to fluctuate in a narrow band slightly above 1.0750 after posting small gains on Monday. Disappointing Factory Orders data from Germany limits the Euro's gains as investors keep a close eye on comments from central bankers.
GBP/USD retreats below 1.2550 as USD recovers
GBP/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades below 1.2550 in the European session on Tuesday. The cautious market stance helps the USD hold its ground and doesn't allow the pair to regain its traction. The Bank of England will announce policy decisions on Thursday.
Gold declines below $2,320 amid renewed US Dollar demand
Gold trades in negative territory below $2,320 as the souring mood allows the USD to find demand on Tuesday. Nevertheless, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays below 4.5% and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Ripple lawsuit develops with SEC reply under seal, XRP holders await public redacted versions
Ripple lawsuit’s latest development is SEC filing, under seal. The regulator has filed its reply brief and supporting exhibits and the documents will be made public on Wednesday, May 8.
The impact of economic indicators and global dynamics on the US Dollar
Recent labor market data suggest a cooling economy. The disappointing job creation and rising unemployment hint at a slackening demand for labor, which, coupled with subdued wage growth, could signal a slower economic trajectory.