Marc Nemenoff
PRICE Futures Group
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 7 lower at 142’02, 10 Yr. Notes 4 lower at 119’10 and 5 Yr. Notes 2.7 lower 112’23.0. I am recommending covering all short biased positions in treasuries ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting (Sept. 25&26). I expect a rate hike of 25 basis points of which I believe is already priced into the market. The yield on the 10 Yr. Note is currently 2.97% and the 30 Yr. Bond 3.12%.
Grains: Yesterday’s Grain Report was negative Corn and neutral for Beans. The yield per acre for Corn was above the pre report estimate of 177.4 coming in at 181.3 putting the total Crop estimate 14.827 billion bushels, above the estimate pre report of 14.506B bushels. We have been waiting for a break to the 352’0 area to be a buyer. Yesterday’s low was 351’2 on Dec. Corn putting us long for the moment.
Cattle: On Wednesday both Live and Feeder Cattle rallied sharply due in part on the rumored resumption of trade talks with China and the results of the Grain Report which confirmed cheaper feed grains down the road. We were stopped out of short positions when the market traded above the 109.075 level. As mentioned last week my bearishness to these markets has been tempered by the current price action which appeared to have upward momentum. I will now be a seller of Dec.LC above 117.00.
Silver: Dec. Silver once again traded through my sell stop (13.98), but did not give me much chance to re-enter the market from the long side on a further break. I am somewhat impressed how the market bounced back to the 14.30 area after making new contract lows in the 13.96 area. The market is currently at 14.27 and I’m going to “stick a toe” in these waters once again with a minimal long position.
S&P's: Sept. S&P’s are currently 7.75 higher at 2896.50. Continue to treat as a trading affair between 2862.00 and 2912.00.
Currencies: As of this writing the Dec. Euro is currently 18 lower at 1.17010, the Yen 32 lower at 0.90200, the Pound 5 lower at 1.3105 and the Dec. Dollar Index 14.7 higher at 94.505. We remain long the Pound from the 1.2850 level and will raise our protective sell stop from 1.2915 to 1.3010. my near term objective is the 1.3300 area.
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