RBNZ hikes rates as expected, raises GDP forecast

Asian Market Update: RBNZ hikes rates as expected, raises GDP forecast; Tech titans Facebook, Apple, TI rally on strong earnings

Economic Data

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) RAISES OFFICIAL CASH RATE BY 25BPS TO 3.00%, AS EXPECTED

- (CN) CHINA MAR CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX M/M: 1.2% V 0.9% PRIOR (4-month high)

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA Q1 PRELIM GDP Q/Q: 0.9% V 0.8%E; Y/Y: 3.9% V 3.8%E

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA Q1 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) Y/Y: +49.1% V -25.3% PRIOR

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAR DEPT STORE SALES Y/Y: -1.1% V -2.4% PRIOR; DISCOUNT STORE SALES Y/Y: -3.7% V -23.1% PRIOR

- (JP) JAPAN MAR CORPORATE SERVICE PRICE INDEX Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.7%E

- (JP) Japan investors sold net ¥463.9B in foreign bonds last week vs bought net ¥114.6B in prior week; Foreign Investors bought net ¥194.0B in Japan stocks v sold net ¥84.2B in prior week

- (VN) VIETNAM APR CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) Y/Y: 4.5% V 4.6%E

Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT):

- Nikkei225 -0.4%, S&P/ASX +0.1%, Kospi -0.1%, Shanghai Composite

-0.2%, Hang Seng +0.2%, Jun S&P500 +0.3% at 1,878, Jun gold +0.2% at $1,286, Jun crude oil +0.2% at $101.67/brl

Highlights/Observations/Insights

- New Zealand dollar is the biggest mover among the dollar majors, hitting a 1-week high against the greenback above $0.8630. As widely expected, Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 25bps to 3.00% - its second consecutive rate hike. More importantly, RBNZ boosted its GDP target for March-end fiscal year from 3.3% to 3.5%, noting economic expansion has built up considerable momentum and inflationary pressures are becoming apparent. RBNZ did caution about the decline in prices for New Zealand's top export - dairy products - with the recent auction prices falling by 20% amid elevated supply conditions. On exchange rates, RBNZ reiterated high NZD remains a headwind to the tradeables sector. RBNZ also reiterated "the speed and extent to which the OCR will be raised will depend on economic data and continuing assessment of emerging inflationary pressures." Subsequent commentary from ANZ noted 50bps of further rate hikes can still be expected this year, while ASB warned higher interest rates could lift floating mortgage rates by nearly 2pts to as high as 7.75%.

- Apple and Facebook are up 7.9% and 3.6% respectively in extended session after a rather impressive set of quarterly results. Apple beat on the top and bottom lines (Reports Q2 $11.62 v $10.21e, R$45.6B v $43.7Be) and also shocked investors with a 7:1 stock split effective June 9th. iPhone shipments were also strong at 43.7M units, above 37.4M y/y and 38.5M consensus, while gross margins expanded 180bps to 39.3%. In addition, Apple boosted its dividend payout by 8% to yield 2.5%. Facebook also beat estimates (Reports Q1 $0.34 v $0.24e, R$2.50B v $2.36Be), noting its Mobile MAUs (monthly active users) rose 34% y/y to 1.01B. Mobile ad revenue now represents 59% of all ad revenues, up from 30% in year-ago period. Texas Instruments is up 3.4% after beating on top and bottom lines and guiding Q2 EPS well above estimates.

- South Korea's flash memory giant Hynix reported Q1 largely in line with estimates, as shares traded flat in the afternoon session after the opening dip lower. For the 2nd quarter, Hynix sees Q2 DRAM shipments rising 10% q/q and NAND flash to growing by mid-40% after an 8% seasonal slide in Q1.

- In China, Conference Board leading index accelerated to its fastest rise in 4 months, but resident CB economist cautioned that its "its six-month growth rate remains moderate, which suggests that the improvement has not firmed up yet." Most notably, Conference Board saw the environment for property investment as "dismal" which would remain a headwind for Q2 GDP.

- A joint conference from Japan between PM Abe and US Pres Obama reflected on strengthened regional security efforts in terms of Japan-China standoff on the Senkaku islands and containment of North Korea's nuclear ambitions. More critical however was the absence of any mention of significant progress on Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations between the two sides, sending USD/JPY to its low levels of the day below ¥102.30.

Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies

- (CN) PBoC to drain CNY85B in 28-day repos (20th consecutive drain); Drains net CNY2B this week v drained CNY41B prior (2nd week of drain)

- (CN) China banks Mar net fx purchases for clients: CNY252.1B v CNY280.5B m/m; Mar total net fx purchases CNY246.5Bv CNY279.6B m/m - China fx regulator SAFE

- JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.48T in 0.1% 2-yr notes, Avg Yield: 0.089% v 0.082% prior; bid to cover: 5.90x v 6.58x prior

Equities

US markets:

- ANGI: Reports Q1 -$0.06 v -$0.07e, R$72.7M v $72.2Me; +9.1% afterhours

- AAPL: Reports Q2 $11.62 v $10.21e, R$45.6B v $43.7Be; approves 7:1 stock split; expands buyback program by $30B (6.4% of market cap), increases dividend 8%; +7.9% afterhours

- ZNGA: Reports Q1 -$0.01 v -$0.02e, R$168M v $147Me; +5.9% afterhours

- LRCX: Reports Q3 $1.26 v $1.16e, R$1.23B v $1.21Be; +4.7% afterhours

- FB: Reports Q1 $0.34 v $0.24e, R$2.50B v $2.36Be; +3.6% afterhours

- TXN: Reports Q1 $0.44 v $0.41e, R$2.98B v $2.96Be; +3.4% afterhours

- ETFC: Reports Q1 $0.33 v $0.23e, R$475M v $454Me; +3.3% afterhours

- CTXS: Reports Q1 $0.64 v $0.58e, R$751M v $734Me; Board authorizes $1.5B share repurchase program (14.5% of market cap); +2.8% afterhours

- FFIV: Reports Q2 $1.27 v $1.25e, R$420M v $414Me; +1.7% afterhours

- C: Board of Directors Approves $1.165B (below 1% of market cap) Common Stock Repurchase Program; +0.6% afterhours

- TSCO: Reports Q1 $0.35 v $0.37e, R$1.18B v $1.21Be; -1.6% afterhours

- IM: Reports Q1 $0.43 v $0.48e, R$10.4B v $10.4Be; -3.4% afterhours

- QCOM: Reports Q2 $1.31 v $1.22e, R$6.37B v $6.53Be; Discloses receipt of SEC Wells Notice in March over bribery allegations in China (FCPA) - 10Q filing; -3.9% afterhours

- XLNX: Reports Q4 $0.56 (ex items) v $0.55e, R$618M v $611Me; -4.6% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer Discretionary: BYD Corp 1211.HK +0.4% (JV with Guangzhou Automobile Group)

- Consumer staples: Chuying Agro-pastora Group 002477.CN -0.7% (Q1 results)

- Financials: Ping An Bank 000001.CN -0.9% (Q1 results); Gemdale Corp 600383.CN +10.0% (Anbang Life discloses stake in Company); Yuzhou Properties 1628.HK +3.8% (FY13 results)

- Materials: Kobe Steel 5406.JP +2.3% (press speculates on earnings); Atlas Iron Ltd AGO.AU +3.7% (Q3 op results); Whitehaven Coal Ltd WHC.AU -1.6% (cuts FY14 saleable coal guidance)

- Energy: Kansai Electric Power 9503.JP -4.4% (expects delays to nuclear facility)

- Industrials: Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings 493.HK +4.2% (Q1 guidance); China State Construction 601668.CN +1.4% (FY13 results); Trigiant Group 1300.HK +1.6% (FY13 results); Shenzhen Infinova 002528.CN +1.5% (FY13 results); Yamato Holdings 9064.JP -2.2% (press speculates on earnings)

- Telecom: NTT DoCoMo 9437.JP -1.7% (press speculates on earnings)