- Memories of 2016 put emphasis on Trump's chances to defy the polls.
- Different margins, surveys, turnout, enthusiasm and demographics all paint a different picture.
- Markets could react positively to a landslide Biden victory unless the Senate majority is overwhelming.
2016 all over again? Anxious Democrats, hopeful Republicans, and pundits all over seem to focus on President Donald Trump's chances of victory in 2020. Here is FXStreet Senior Analyst Joseph Trevisani's highly recommended point of view:
However, all signs are pointing in a different direction. Here are five quick charts that build the case for a landslide victory for Joe Biden.
1) State polls are stable and point to a Biden win
FiveThirtyEight's final forecast is showing an 89% chance for Biden to become the 46th President, contrary to Hillary Clinton's 71% probability. The model is based on state polls on which have taken eduction into their weighting and have proved correct in the 2018 midterms. Moreover, the direction of travel has been in Biden's favor, increasing steadily.
The Economist's forecasts stand at 95% for the former Vice-President.
2) Larger margin on the national level
For those who prefer staying away from Nate Silver's nerdy approach or from the Biden-endorsing – yet neo-liberal – Economist, the RealClearPolitics is also pointing to a larger deficit for the incumbent. RCP, which prominently includes partisan Republican polls such as Rasmussen and Trafalgar, is showing Biden outperforming Clinton by 3.4 points in the national average:
3) Early vote is massive, watch Texas
For those unimpressed by models and aggregators based on polls, early voting provides an indicator. Whether in-person or by mail, nearly 100 million Americans have cast their ballots, some 72.3% of the total 2016 turnout.
When people are willing to stand for hours in line to vote, they want to change.
Voting is especially robust in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas – where 2020 voting has surpassed 2016. Trump is leading by only 1% in polls in the Lone Star state. Can Texas turn blue?
Source: US Elections Project
4) Trump's base is shrinking
State polls in the Upper Midwest underestimated support for Trump among white working-class voters. Their share in the population is in a long-term decline.
Source: New York Times
5) Democrats are more enthusiastic
The president's rallies – which have contributed to the spread of COVD-19 – are massive, supporters say, and that shows enthusiasm. Massive turnout and enthusiasm among Trump backers may outweigh the vote for "Sleepy Joe" – as the incumbent describes his challenger.
However, while Republican enthusiasm is high, that of Democrats is even higher – beating even levels seen ahead of Barack Obama's 2008 landslide victory. It probably reflects an urge to oust Trump than to vote in Biden, but the outcome is the same.
Source: FiveThirtyEight, using Gallup data
Even without taking the upcoming third covid US peak into account, a victory for Biden – perhaps a huge one with over 400 electors – is a reality. Trump has a path to victory, yet it is considerably narrow. The fear of a 2016-repat may even cause pollsters to hedge and overestimate Trump. A landslide victory for Biden cannot be ruled out.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.