When is the US CPI report and how could it affect EUR/USD?

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

US May CPI Overview

Wednesday's US economic docket highlights the release of the latest consumer inflation figures, due for release later during the early North-American session at 12:30GMT. The headline CPI is anticipated to decelerate further and show a modest month-on-month (m/m) rise of 0.2% in May, down from 0.4% and 0.3% gains recorded in March and April respectively. Meanwhile, the yearly inflation rate is expected to drop to 1.9% as against 2.0% previous and core CPI - excluding food and energy costs, is predicted to rise 0.2% m/m rate as compared to April's 0.1% increase, helping the annual core inflation to hold steady at 2.1%.

However, analysts at TD Securities are looking for the US headline CPI to slow two tenths to 1.8% in May on the back of a mild 0.1% seasonally-adjusted monthly increase and explained: “The softer monthly increase is largely the result of the normalization in energy prices, which were a major driver to the upside in recent months. We anticipate food prices to remain largely subdued in May, but flag an upside risk.”

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below and as observed, the reaction in case of a relative deviation of +0.98 to -0.98 in the core CPI print is likely to be in the range of 26-25 pips during the first 15-minutes and could stretch to 55-71 pips in the following 4-hours.

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Market participants will scrutinize the data for clues over the Fed's near-term monetary policy outlook ahead of the next meeting later this June. Against the backdrop of Friday's disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls data, another miss on the inflation front would further increase bets for an eventual Fed rate cut action in 2019 and exert some additional pressure on the already weaker US Dollar.

Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels to watch out for – “1.1348 was the high point on Friday and remains a critical line. A break above it would send EUR/USD to the highest levels since late March. The next cap is at 1.1395 was a swing high back then. It is followed by 1.1445.”

“1.1325 held the pair down in mid-April and is the immediate support line. Next, we find the round number of 1.1300 which supported it on Tuesday, and 1.1285 which supported it earlier. 1.1250 and 1.1220 are next,” he added further.

Key Notes

About the US CPI

The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchasing power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

EUR/USD tests nine-day EMA support near 1.1850

EUR/USD inches lower during the Asian hours on Monday, trading around 1.1870 at the time of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index momentum indicator at 56 stays above the midline, confirming improving momentum. RSI has cooled from prior overbought readings but stabilizes above 50, suggesting dips could stay limited before buyers reassert control.

GBP/USD flat lines as traders await key UK macro data and FOMC minutes

The GBP/USD pair kicks off a new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow range, just below mid-1.3600s, during the Asian session. Moreover, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive traders as the market focus now shifts to this week's important releases from the UK and the US.

Gold slides below $5,000 amid USD uptick and positive risk tone; downside seems limited

Gold attracts fresh sellers at the start of a new week and reverses a part of Friday's strong move up of over $150 from sub-$4,900 levels. The commodity slides back below the $5,000 psychological mark during the Asian session, though the downside potential seems limited amid a combination of supporting factors.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate within key ranges as selling pressure eases

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have been trading sideways within key ranges following the massive correction. Meanwhile, XRP recovers slightly, breaking above the key resistance zone. The top three cryptocurrencies hint at a potential short-term recovery, with momentum indicators showing fading bearish signs.

Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation

Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.