When is the Aussie jobs report, and how could it affect the AUD/USD?


Aussie employment report overview

Early Thrusday sees the latest round of employment figures for the Australian economy, and markets are overall expecting a positive outcome, with the Aussie Unemployment Rate and Participation Rate to both remain steady at 5.4% and 65.5% respectively, while median market forecasts are calling for an increase in the Employment Change headline, with an expectation of 17 thousand new jobs added in June, compared to the previous month's 12 thousand. Part-time positions in Australia helped bump the employment numbers last go around, with 32.6 thousand new part-time workers in May, while full-time positions decreased in the same month, falling by -20.6 thousand. There is a chance that the numbers release could skew away from market forecasts, according to analysts at TD Securities: "Employment for Jun is likely to increase by an “average” +20k (mkt +18k) as job ads continue to expand and seasonals are supportive of a solid increase. Adding 20k jobs combined with an unchanged 65.5% participation rate leaves the unemployment rate at 5.4%. Risks are skewed towards a pickup in the participation rate, all else being equal lifts the u-rate back to 5.5%."

How could it affect the AUD/USD?

An increase in the number of employed persons within the Australian economy would be a strong bullish catalyst for the AUD, but technical figures are still leaning towards the downside, and bears could be heading into the next session with a home-field advantage, as noted by FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik: "despite the latest recovery, the 4 hours chart shows that the upward potential remains limited as the pair is struggling with directionless 20 and 100 SMA both confined to a tight range, while technical indicators bounce from their daily lows, with the Momentum still in negative territory but the RSI aiming to surpass its mid-line."

Support levels: 0.7370 0.7335 0.7310 

Resistance levels: 0.7410 0.7450 0.7490 

Key notes

AUD/USD analysis: Australian employment data to lead the way

Aussie touches two week low but bounces to test key resistance at 0.74

About the Aussie Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

About the Aussie Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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