US monthly retail sales overview
Wednesday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures for January, scheduled later during the early North American session at 13:30 GMT. Having fallen during the final three months of 2020, market participants anticipate a turnaround in consumer spending at the start of the year. The headline sales are expected to have increased by 1% in January. Sales excluding autos are also projected to grow by 1% during the reported month following losses of 1.4% in December and 0.9% in November. Meanwhile, the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group are anticipated to rise by 0.9% in January as compared to 1.9% decline recorded in the previous month.
How could it affect EUR/USD?
Ahead of the key release, the US dollar built on the previous day's solid rebound from three-week lows and dragged the EUR/USD pair to over one-week lows. Given that the USD recovery was exclusively sponsored by the recent runaway rally in the US Treasury bond yields, the market reaction to US macro data is more likely to be muted. That said, any significant divergence from expected figures might produce some meaningful trading opportunities.
Meanwhile, Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own analyst offered a brief technical outlook for the EUR/USD pair and explained: “Euro/dollar has dropped below the 50 and 100 Simple Moving Averages and momentum has turned to the downside. These bearish signs are may push it to the critical support at 1.2055, which separated ranges in early February. At that point, the Relative Strength Index may dip below 30, entering oversold conditions.”
Yohay also provided some important technical levels to trade the major: “Some resistance awaits at 1.2110, which provided support last week, followed by 1.2150, a swing high from the same time. Further above, 1.2165 is Tuesday's high and serves as an upside target. Below 1.2055, the next cushion awaits at 1.20, the round number, and the next level to watch is 1.1955.”
Key Notes
• US Retail Sales January Preview: Credit markets foresee consumer recovery
• EUR/USD Forecast: King dollar comeback? Not so fast, the euro is set to bounce at critical support
• EUR/USD Price Analysis: Weakness seen as temporary
About US retail sales
The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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