USD/JPY prepares for a fresh rally above 143.50 amid risk-off mood

USD/JPY is expected to extend a rally above 143.50 as market sentiment has dampened.
The US Dollar Index has printed a fresh day's high at 102.70 amid sheer uncertainty in global markets.
Japan’s inflation has unexpectedly softened despite consistent monetary stimulus by the BoJ.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The USD/JPY pair has witnessed a marginal correction after facing fragile barricades around 143.50 in the early London session. The upside bias for the USD/JPY pair has not faded as the market sentiment is quite negative, which has improved the appeal of the US Dollar Index (DXY).

S&P500 futures have posted significant losses in Asia as investors are worried that extremely restrictive monetary policy from global central banks has accelerated fears of bleak global growth. The overall market mood is quite negative as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is going to raise interest rates further to tame persistent inflation.

The US Dollar Index has printed a fresh day's high at 102.70 amid sheer uncertainty in global markets. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, around 77% chances are in favor of a hawkish interest rate policy by the Fed for the July meeting. The odds for a hawkish July policy are still solid despite tight labor market conditions releasing heat.

On Thursday, the US Department of Labor reported marginally higher initial jobless claims for the week ending June 16. Jobless claims were higher than the consensus for the straight fourth time in a row. The claims were landed at 264K, similar to their prior release and marginally higher than expectations of 260K.

On the Japanese Yen front, inflationary pressures have unexpectedly softened despite consistent monetary stimulus by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Headline inflation has decelerated to 3.2% while the street was estimating a further boost to 4.1%. Also, it remained lower than the former release of 3.5%. Core inflation that excludes volatile oil and food prices landed at 4.3%, marginally lower than the estimates of 4.4% but remained higher than the former release of 4.1%.

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price	143.33
Today Daily Change	0.21
Today Daily Change %	0.15
Today daily open	143.12

Trends
Daily SMA20	140.36
Daily SMA50	137.61
Daily SMA100	135.52
Daily SMA200	137.21

Levels
Previous Daily High	143.23
Previous Daily Low	141.61
Previous Weekly High	141.92
Previous Weekly Low	139.01
Previous Monthly High	140.93
Previous Monthly Low	133.5
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	142.61
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	142.23
Daily Pivot Point S1	142.08
Daily Pivot Point S2	141.04
Daily Pivot Point S3	140.46
Daily Pivot Point R1	143.69
Daily Pivot Point R2	144.27
Daily Pivot Point R3	145.31

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold holds above $4,000/three-month low as Fed hike bets and firm USD cap upside

Gold struggles to capitalize on its modest recovery from levels below the $4,000 psychological mark, or a three-month low set earlier this Friday, and retains a bearish tone through the first half of the European session. Federal Reserve officials recently signaled there is no urgency to raise interest rates. Traders, however, are still pricing in around an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple rebound as major support levels cap recent sell-off

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple rebound modestly on Friday after correcting and testing their key support zone the previous day. BTC holds the 50-day EMA, ETH finds support around the 100-day EMA, while XRP holds the horizontal floor near $1.300. The price action of these top three cryptocurrencies suggests a recovery if this critical support zone holds; a decisive close below these levels suggests a deeper correction.

US S&P Global PMI expected to show moderating business activity in October

The United States S&P Global preliminary Purchasing Managers Indices for October will be released on Friday, providing fresh insights into the health of the world's largest economy ahead of next week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The report includes the Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and Composite PMI, which measure business activity across the private sector.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.