- USD/INR reverses pullback from multi-day top, taking rounds to intraday low of late.
- India Services PMI stays firm in September, daily covid infections drop to early March lows.
- S&P keeps India’s growth forecast intact, RBI eyed for fresh liquidity injection.
- US politics, China and ISM Services PMI will be important to watch for fresh impulse.
Having jumped to the fresh high since July, USD/INR stepped back to 74.53, down 0.05% intraday heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair struggles to justify the US dollar amid mixed catalysts.
Starting with the positives for India, services activities remained firmer despite easing from the highest since early 2020. “The IHS Markit Services Purchasing Managers' Index eased to 55.2 in September from August's 18-month high of 56.7, but stayed comfortably above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction,” said Reuters.
Further, news that global rating giant S&P retains India’s 9.5% growth for the financial year (FY) 2022 and the daily covid cases dropped to the lowest since March 10 also keeps INR bulls hopeful. Additionally, hopes that RBI may take qualitative actions to keep the local market immune from China-led risk add to the USD/INR weakness.
On the contrary, chatters surrounding Fantasia Holdings Group and Sinic, real-estate companies from China, join the lines of Evergrande to amplify financial market risks emanating from China. Also, uncertainty over US infrastructure spending and debt limit extension weigh on the market sentiment, underpinning the US dollar’s safe-haven demand.
It should be noted that the US 10-year Treasury yields extend the previous day’s recovery moves to 1.50%, up 1.7 basis points (bps) while stock futures remain sluggish while the US Dollar Index (DXY) rises near 0.17% on a day as the bulls poke the 94.00 threshold at the latest.
Having reacted to the Asian session catalysts, USD/INR traders may wait for the US PMIs for fresh impulse. However, the sentiment-related headlines will be important to follow for clear direction.
Technical analysis
Given the clear upside break of a descending resistance line from late April, USD/INR is all set to challenge the July month’s top surrounding the 75.00 round figure.
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