USD/INR Price News: Indian Rupee begins RBI week on a back foot near 82.50 as US NFP favors Fed hawks

USD/INR stays on the front foot after reversing from 13-day low on Friday.
Strong US NFP renews hawkish Fed concerns while softer India data allows RBI to defend status quo.
Risk-off mood, higher Oil price also weigh on Indian Rupee ahead of the key week.
Second-tier US data, risk catalysts may entertain intraday traders.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

USD/INR extends recovery from 50-day EMA to around 82.50 heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair cheers the US Dollar strength, as well as downbeat sentiment and the firmer Crude Oil price to propel the pair of late.

Adding strength to the USD/INR recovery could be the consolidation ahead of this week’s Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Meeting, up for Thursday.

Above all, a monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the RBI, mainly due to the latest streams of the US and India data, allow the USD/INR pair to remain firmer. Adding strength to the USD/INR pair could be the latest strength of the WTI Crude Oil and the risk-off mood, led by the fears of the US-China tussle and the Russia-Ukraine war.

That said, Friday’s US NFP bolstered calls for the Fed’s 0.25% rate hike in June, as well as slashed the odds favoring the Fed rate cut in 2023. The same allowed the US Dollar Index (DXY) to remain firmer and favor the corrective bounce in the US Treasury bond yields.

On the other hand, the market’s sour sentiment due to the geopolitical concerns about China, Russia, Ukraine and the US join the concerns about the RBI’s likely monetary policy inaction, mainly due to the Indian economics suggesting easy inflation and softer growth, to propel the USD/INR price.

Against this backdrop, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields recover after snapping a three-week uptrend by the end of the last Friday. That said, the S&P500 Futures also portray the risk-off mood by mild losses as it retreats from the highest levels since August 2022. The same underpins the US Dollar Index (DXY) strength ahead of the US Factory Orders and ISM Services PMI for May.

Moving on, US Factory Orders and ISM Services PMI for May will entertain intraday traders whereas Thursday’s RBI Interest Rate Decision becomes the key event for the USD/INR pair watchers.

Technical analysis

A clear rebound from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 82.30 by the press time, allows USD/INR bulls to aim for a one-week-old descending resistance line of near 82.65.

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	82.526
Today Daily Change	0.1226
Today Daily Change %	0.15%
Today daily open	82.4034

Trends
Daily SMA20	82.4584
Daily SMA50	82.1602
Daily SMA100	82.1956
Daily SMA200	81.9231

Levels
Previous Daily High	82.453
Previous Daily Low	82.2615
Previous Weekly High	82.8046
Previous Weekly Low	82.2615
Previous Monthly High	82.981
Previous Monthly Low	81.6435
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	82.3799
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	82.3347
Daily Pivot Point S1	82.2922
Daily Pivot Point S2	82.1811
Daily Pivot Point S3	82.1007
Daily Pivot Point R1	82.4838
Daily Pivot Point R2	82.5642
Daily Pivot Point R3	82.6753

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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