USD/INR Price Analysis: Indian Rupee prods key hurdle for bulls around 81.80 with eyes on US NFP

USD/INR stays well-set for three-week losing streak, down for the fourth consecutive day.
Indian Rupee buyers take a breather at 11-week-old ascending trend line.
Clear break of upward-sloping previous support line from September 2022, bearish MACD signal favor USD/INR sellers.
Convergence of Five-month-old support line, 200-DMA appears a tough nut to crack for pair bears.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

USD/INR bears poke a multi-day-old support line around 81.80 as it braces for the third consecutive weekly loss on early Friday. Apart from the stated support line, the Good Friday holiday and cautious mood ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release also challenge the Indian Rupee (INR) pair.

Also read: Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Markets fear depressing data, three scenarios for the US Dollar

It’s worth noting, however, that a daily closing below the support-turned-resistance line from the last September, around 82.00 by the press time, joins the bearish MACD signals to keep USD/INR sellers hopeful of breaking the immediate 81.80 support.

Following that, the quote can quickly drop to the previous monthly low of around 81.50.

Though, a convergence of the 200-DMA and a five-month-old ascending trend line, close to 81.40 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the USD/INR bears afterward.

Meanwhile, USD/INR recovery remains elusive unless the pair stays below the 82.00 previous support.

Even if the quote rises past 82.00, a downward-sloping resistance line from March 22, around 82.35 at the latest, can test the USD/INR bulls.

Above all, USD/INR buyers should remain cautious unless witnessing a daily close beyond the descending resistance line from October 2022, near 83.00 by the press time.

USD/INR: Daily chart

Trend: Further downside expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	81.833
Today Daily Change	0.0152
Today Daily Change %	0.02%
Today daily open	81.8178

Trends
Daily SMA20	82.2934
Daily SMA50	82.3548
Daily SMA100	82.2056
Daily SMA200	81.3816

Levels
Previous Daily High	82.123
Previous Daily Low	81.8054
Previous Weekly High	82.441
Previous Weekly Low	82.03
Previous Monthly High	83.0315
Previous Monthly Low	81.512
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	81.9267
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	82.0017
Daily Pivot Point S1	81.7078
Daily Pivot Point S2	81.5978
Daily Pivot Point S3	81.3902
Daily Pivot Point R1	82.0254
Daily Pivot Point R2	82.233
Daily Pivot Point R3	82.343

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

GBP/USD surrenders some gains, back to 1.3420

GBP/USD holds on to moderate gains above 1.3400 the figure on Friday. Optimism surrounding the UK government’s leadership transition and expectations of further BoE tightening support the British Pound, while easing tensions in the Middle East and fading Fed rate-hike expectations weigh on the US Dollar.

EUR/USD turns positive, targets 1.1450

EUR/USD now picks up pace and advances toward the 1.1440 region on Friday, up modestly for the day. With no major economic data due, lingering uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict keeps investors cautious, limiting the pair's upside.

Gold remains offered, still below $4,100

Gold struggles to extend Thursday’s rebound and navigates below the $4,100 mark per troy ounce on Friday. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict limits the precious metal’s upside, which is also under pressure amid rising US Treasury yields across the curve.

Week ahead – US CPI and Warsh testimony to take centre stage, BoC eyed too

US inflation report and Warsh testimony to headline the week. Dollar to dominate amid slew of other US data and Mideast tensions. Amid fresh Iran escalation, China GDP to shed light on Q2 impact. Bank of Canada not expected to follow RBNZ with rate hike.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June FOMC meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.