- USD/INR strengthened due to the release of a widened trade balance from India.
- India's soft inflation in August is putting pressure on the Indian Rupee (INR).
- RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das anticipates inflation to ease starting from September onward.
- US Dollar (USD) experienced losses ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decisions on Wednesday.
USD/INR attempts to continue the winning streak that began on Tuesday, trading higher around 83.10 during the Asian session on Monday. The Indian Rupee (INR) is experiencing downward pressure due to the trade balance figure.
The report indicates that the trade deficit in India expanded to its highest level in 10 months, reaching $24.2 billion in August. This represents an increase from the trade deficit of $20.7 billion recorded in the previous month.
Additionally, the easing inflation in August is also putting pressure on the INR, which came in at 6.83%, compared to 7.44% in the previous month. Additionally, the Core inflation rate stood at 4.9%, aligning with market expectations.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das has stated that the central bank anticipates inflation to ease starting from September onward. This suggests that the RBI expects a gradual decline in inflationary pressures, which can have implications for its monetary policy decisions.
Moreover, on Friday, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman revealed that India is currently engaged in negotiations with approximately 22 countries to facilitate bilateral trade transactions in the Indian Rupee. This initiative suggests India's efforts to strengthen trade ties and potentially reduce reliance on foreign currencies in international trade.
On the other hand, the US Dollar (USD) is facing downward pressure, likely a result of the downbeat consumer sentiment data from the United States (US) released on Friday. The preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered a reading of 67.7, reflecting a decrease from the previous figure of 69.5. This reading also came in below the anticipated figure of 69.1 for the month of September.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which assesses the performance of the US Dollar against six other major currencies, concluded its ninth week with an overall gain of 0.26%. Nevertheless, the spot price is hovering around 105.30.
The US Treasury yields have fully reversed their intraday gains, exerting downward pressure on the Greenback. The yield on the US 10-year bond has declined to 4.32%, down by 0.25% at the time of writing.
In the past week, significant economic data from the US has consistently highlighted robust economic conditions. These strong economic indicators provide additional support for the Fed's intention to potentially implement another interest rate hike by the conclusion of 2023.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, exceeded expectations. Additionally, Retail Sales for the same month and Jobless Claims for the second week of September both yielded positive outcomes, signifying a positive economic outlook for the US.
Market participants will closely watch the Fed’s interest rate decisions scheduled for Wednesday. The Fed is expected to maintain its current interest rates without changes. Furthermore, market participants will carefully scrutinize the central bank's communications, seeking any clues or insights regarding the possible future direction of interest rates.
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