- USD/IDR prints three-day downtrend despite recently sidelined performance.
- Indonesia Exports, Imports eased in January, Trade Balance improved.
- USD tracked pullback in yields even as market sentiment remains sour.
- US PPI, Empire State Manufacturing Index will join risk catalysts to direct short-term moves.
USD/IDR stays on the back foot for the third consecutive day, despite the recent bounce off the intraday low. That said, the Indonesia rupiah (IDR) pair remains sidelined around $14,290 by the press time of early Tuesday morning in Europe.
In doing so, the USD/IDR pair cheers a pullback in the US dollar while paying a little heed to the mixed Indonesia trade numbers for January.
Indonesia’s Exports dropped below 33.86% expected and 35.3% prior to 25.31% whereas the Imports declined to 36.77% versus 51.38% market consensus and 47.93% previous readouts. However, Trade Balance improved to $0.93B compared to the $0.19B forecasts, versus $1.02B prior.
Elsewhere, headlines concerning Russia-Ukraine tussles and signals for the Fed’s March rate-hike keep challenging the market sentiment. However, the US Treasury yields couldn’t cheer the risk-off mood, which in turn weighs on the US Dollar Index (DXY) by the press time.
Read: US Dollar Index retreat from fortnight high towards 96.00 as yields ease
It’s worth noting, however, that the mixed performance of US stock futures and Asia-Pacific equities also challenge the USD/IDR moves but the USD pullback keeps the pair sellers hopeful.
That said, today’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) for January, expected 9.1% YoY versus 9.7% prior, whereas the Empire State Manufacturing Index for February, having the market consensus of 12 versus -0.7% previous readouts, will offer immediate direction to the pair.
Technical analysis
Unless crossing the $14,450 level on a daily closing basis, USD/IDR stays vulnerable to test December 2021 bottom surrounding $14,140.
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