USD: Fed does not move the needle – ING

The US Dollar (USD) failed to hold very modest gains from the initially hawkish-sounding FOMC statement. Subsequent clarification comments from Chair Jay Powell through the press conference saw both USD rates and the dollar hand back those gains, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

DXY to head back to the 108.20 or even 108.50 area

"This leaves the market looking for two 25bp cuts this year – one in June and one in December – and awaiting both US data and the tariff story for their next big cues. Those dovish on the Fed will be hoping for some softer core PCE inflation data tomorrow (perhaps even a 0.1% MoM reading?) and expecting large and negative benchmark payroll revisions early next month to change the narrative on a robust US labour market."

"Elsewhere we note that Nvidia is struggling to reclaim much of Monday's sharp sell-off on the DeepSeek news – where most seem to be concluding that DeepSeek's progress could be good for productivity gains yet bad for those tech and energy companies in which those AI-centred profits are concentrated. In early Europe, S&P 500 futures are marked modestly higher after a mixed set of earnings results from MSFT, Tesla and META overnight."

"Today the US focus should be on a reasonably strong fourth-quarter GDP release, very much driven by strong consumption. This should prove another tick in the box for US exceptionalism and could see DXY heading back to the 108.20 or even 108.50 area – depending on ECB developments today."