- USD/CHF comes under some renewed selling pressure on Tuesday amid sustained USD selling.
- Bets for a less hawkish Fed offset a further recovery in the US bond yields and weigh on the USD.
- The risk-on environment could undermine the safe-haven CHF and lend some support to the pair.
- Investors might also prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial central bank event risks.
The USD/CHF pair attracts fresh sellers following an early uptick to the 0.9315 area on Tuesday and extends the sharp intraday downfall through the first half of the European session. The pair drops to the 0.9250-0.9245 area in the last hour and reverses a major part of the previous day's positive move.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) draws support from the latest optimism led by the news that UBS will rescue Credit Suisse in a $3.24 billion deal, which helps ease fears of widespread contagion risk. This, along with sustained US Dollar selling for the fourth successive day amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will soften its hawkish stance, is seen exerting downward pressure on the USD/CHF pair.
In fact, the markets have been pricing in a smaller 25 bps rate hike in March and the possibility that the US central bank might even start cutting rates during the second half of the year. This, to a larger extent, offsets a further recovery in the US Treasury bond yields and drags the USD Index, which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to its lowest level since February 14 in the last hour.
It, however, remains to be seen if bears can maintain their dominant position amid a generally positive tone around the equity markets, which tends to undermine the safe-haven CHF. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and prefer to wait for the outcome of the highly-anticipated two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, scheduled to be announced during the US session on Wednesday.
The key focus, however, will remain on the accompanying policy statement and updated economic projections. This, along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at the post-meeting press conference, will be closely scrutinized for clues about the future rate-hike path. This, in turn, will influence the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the USD/CHF pair ahead of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) meeting on Thursday.
Technical levels to watch
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD drops toward 1.0650 ahead of German inflation data
EUR/USD is falling toward 1.0650 in European trading. Dismal China's Manufacturing PMI and pre-US debt deal vote anxiety support the safe-haven US Dollar while markets pare ECB rate hike bets after softer French inflation data. German inflation data, Fedspeak and US House vote eyed.
GBP/USD extends losses toward 1.2350 amid firmer US Dollar
GBP/USD is extending losses toward 1.2350 in the European session. Markets stay jittery amid China growth worries and ahead of the US House vote on the debt deal. Hawkish Fed's Mester underpins the ongoing US Dollar upsurge. More Fedspeak in focus.
Gold price rebound eyes $1,990 and US factors
Gold Price picks up bids to refresh intraday high as buyers cheer a two-day winning streak, after refreshing the lowest levels in 10 weeks. In doing so, the XAU/USD fails to justify the latest rebound in the DXY but aptly cheers the downbeat Treasury bond yields.
BTC bulls recovery plan targets $30,000 as bears exhaust
Bitcoin action slows down, allowing bears to doubt their strength. As more time elapses, the chances of bulls taking over control of BTC become more likely. A spillover effect would be noticeable in Ethereum and Ripple prices.
Risk off flow into month end
We had warned against the market wanting to get overly excited about the news of a US debt ceiling deal that was always going to get done. And now that this reality is coming to fruition, it’s back to focusing on the market drivers where investors need to focus.