USD/CHF rebounds after hitting YTD low amid risk-off impulse on US recession fears

Private hiring in February rose by 145K, lower than anticipated.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI drops to 51.2, below expectations and the previous month’s reading.
USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bullish continuation requires reclaiming 0.9100 resistance; otherwise, further losses lie below 0.9000.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

USD/CHF hits a new YTD low at 0.9005 but rebounds as a risk-off impulse, seeing a flight to safety, as shown by US equities trading in the red. Growing concerns in the United States (USD) arose after the last tranche of US economic data increased the likelihood of a recession. At the time of writing, the USD/CHF is trading at 0.9070.

Wall Street fluctuates between gains and losses. US Treasury bond yields continued to drop as the bond market rallied, on investors seeking safe-haven assets. The USD/CHF fell to a multi-month low, though it recovered some ground after US data revealed elevated recession fears.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI headed to 51.2, less than the expected 54.4, and fell short of the previous month’s reading of 55.1. Business activity deterioration, and a decline in new orders growth, were the reasons for the dip. Earlier, the ADP Employment Change report showed that private hiring in February rose by 145K, below the anticipated 200K, trailing January’s upwardly revised figure of 261K.

Given the backdrop that labor market indicators suggesting a downturn in unemployment claims could pave the way for a weak US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The consensus estimates that the US economy in March created 240K jobs, lower than February’s 311K.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that the USD/CHF remains downward biased. Wednesday’s fall toward a multi-month low at around 0.9005 and a late recovery is forming a hammer, which, preceded by a downtrend, can exacerbate an upward correction. For a bullish continuation, the USD/CHF needs to reclaim 0.9100. Above that resistance, a previous support trendline turned resistance around 0.9170-0.9180, which would be the next supply zone, ahead of testing the 20-day EMA. Otherwise, the USD/CHF could extend its losses below 0.9000.

What to watch?

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

AUD/USD: The 0.7000 level holds the downside…for now

AUD/USD has clinched its fourth consecutive daily pullback on Thursday, coming closer to the key 0.7000 region while breaking below the critical 200-day SMA at the same time. The Aussie’s decline comes on the back of further gains in the Greenback in a context of rising yields and Fed rate hike bets.

USD/JPY keeps the red near 158.00 as Japanese Yen firms up

USD/JPY retreats from three-week highs and holds losses near 158.00 in the Asian session on Thursday. Surging Japanese bond yields lift the Yen amid looming intervention risks, while the US Dollar preserves overnight gains to a two-month high amid hawkish Fed bets and elevated US bond yields.

Gold bounces off lows, still below $4,300

Gold builds on Wednesday’s retracement, briefly slipping back below $4,250 per troy ounce to attempt a lacklustre rebound afterwards. The better tone in the US Dollar, rising US Treasury yields and expectation of extra rate hikes by the Fed continue to weigh on the precious metal in the latter part of Thursday’s NA session.

XRP is flashing three bullish signals heading into a historically weak October

XRP (XRP) is still flashing 3 bullish signals across its holders, derivatives, and ETF data. These signals come as the token gave back part of its September gains on Thursday. The token traded near $1.50 at press time, down about 6.3% over 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto Markets data. The pullback still leaves XRP up over 15.6% on the week, a gain that tracks a broader market rally.

Advanced economies: From one example of resilience to another

History tends to repeat itself in advanced economies. Once again, growth ultimately fell short of expectations by only a small margin in the first half of 2026, despite the conflict in Iran. As early as 2025, the impact of tariffs was less severe than feared.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.