USD/CHF Price Analysis: Breaking back inside rising channel as bulls reassert control

  • USD/CHF is breaking back inside the rising channel it broke out of last week. 
  • This is probably a sign the dominant uptrend is resuming and prices will go higher. 
  • A close on a 4-hour basis back inside the channel would help confirm the bullish thesis. 

USD/CHF is in the process of breaking back inside its rising channel as the bull trend tries to pick up momentum following a period of weakness. 

Price broke down and out of its rising channel on May 14. The break signaled a possible bearish reversal, however, price failed to make much headway lower. 

The pair recovered after bottoming on May 16 and began clawing its way higher. It has now broken back inside the channel and if the current 4-hour candle ends with a bullish close it will probably signal a resumption of the uptrend after a false break. 

USD/CHF 4-hour Chart


The pair has been rising in a channel since the start of 2024. Given the received wisdom that “the trend is your friend” this broad uptrend should continue. 

In the short term the outlook is clarifying. For a while it looked as if the channel breakdown had reversed the short-term trend. However, price rallied and the current candle on the 4-hour has actually penetrated decisively back inside the channel. If the current candle ends on a bullish note it will indicate price has clearly broken back inside its rising channel, and the uptrend should extend quite happily upwards. In such a scenario USD/CHF would be expected to reach close to the 0.9225 highs of the year. 

Until the current period closes, however, it is impossible to assess with any degree of certainty whether bulls have been victorious. It is possible, for example, that price could recapitulate and fall back down to below the red trendline before the current candle closes – invalidating the bullish recovery hypothesis. 

It would require a significant drop to reverse the trend, however, with price needing to break back below the breakout move low at 0.8988 to suggest a reversal and continuation south. 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content

Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD clings to modest recovery gains above 1.0700

EUR/USD clings to modest recovery gains above 1.0700

EUR/USD clings to small recovery gains above 1.0700 on Monday following the previous week's slide. European political uncertainty continues to undermine the Euro and cap the pair's upside, while the US Dollar consolidates recent gains amid a tepid market mood. 


GBP/USD remains pressured below 1.2700 amid cautious mood

GBP/USD remains pressured below 1.2700 amid cautious mood

GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.2700 in the second half of the day on Monday. The hawkish Fed expectations and a softer risk tone keep the US Dollar afloat, exerting downward pressure on the pair. Fedspeak remains next in focus. 


Gold retreats below $2,320 as US yields rebound

Gold retreats below $2,320 as US yields rebound

Gold struggles to build on Friday's gains and trades in the red below $2,320 on Monday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield rebound above 4.25% following last week's slide, making it difficult for XAU/USD to gain traction.

Gold News

XRP stuck below $0.50 as Ripple CLO says SEC has abandoned demand for $2 billion fine

XRP stuck below $0.50 as Ripple CLO says SEC has abandoned demand for $2 billion fine

XRP struggles to make a comeback above sticky resistance at $0.50 on Monday as traders continue to assess the legal skirmishes between blockchain firm Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).  

Read more

Five fundamentals for the week: French opinion polls, US Retail Sales and Bank of England eyed Premium

Five fundamentals for the week: French opinion polls, US Retail Sales and Bank of England eyed

Politics is back, with elections in France rocking markets. US Retail Sales and flash PMIs will provide insights into America's slowdown. The Bank of England announces its decision after all-important CPI data.

Read more