USD/CHF edges lower amid geopolitical tensions; holds above 0.8800 on bullish USD
- USD/CHF meets with a fresh supply on Thursday, though the downside seems limited.
- Expectations for a less dovish Fed and elevated US bond yields could support the USD.
- The risk-on mood could undermine the safe-haven CHF and lend support to the major.
The USD/CHF pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's recovery from the vicinity of the 0.8800 mark or a one-week low and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.8825 region, down just over 0.2% for the day, though any meaningful downside seems elusive in the wake of a bullish US Dollar (USD) sentiment.
Investors now seem convinced that US President-elect Donald Trump's expansionary policies will likely boost inflation and limit the scope for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease its monetary policy aggressively. Moreover, Fed policymakers' recent cautious remarks on further policy easing remain supportive of rising US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, assists the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to hold steady near the year-to-date touched last week and should act as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair.
Meanwhile, the initial market reaction to Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval to change the country's nuclear doctrine turned out to be short-lived as comments from Russian and US officials eased concerns about the onset of a nuclear war. This remains supportive of a generally positive tone across the global equity markets and undermines demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF). The prevalent risk-on mood might further contribute to limiting the downside for the USD/CHF pair and warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders.
Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales data. This, along with the speeches from a slew of influential FOMC members, will drive the US bond yields and the USD. Apart from this, geopolitical developments should produce short-term trading opportunities around the USD/CHF pair. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.
US Dollar PRICE This month
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this month. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 3.16% | 1.94% | 1.98% | 0.24% | 1.03% | 1.68% | 2.25% | |
| EUR | -3.16% | -1.19% | -1.13% | -2.83% | -2.07% | -1.41% | -0.89% | |
| GBP | -1.94% | 1.19% | 0.06% | -1.66% | -0.89% | -0.23% | 0.27% | |
| JPY | -1.98% | 1.13% | -0.06% | -1.71% | -0.95% | -0.29% | 0.25% | |
| CAD | -0.24% | 2.83% | 1.66% | 1.71% | 0.78% | 1.45% | 1.96% | |
| AUD | -1.03% | 2.07% | 0.89% | 0.95% | -0.78% | 0.67% | 1.17% | |
| NZD | -1.68% | 1.41% | 0.23% | 0.29% | -1.45% | -0.67% | 0.50% | |
| CHF | -2.25% | 0.89% | -0.27% | -0.25% | -1.96% | -1.17% | -0.50% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
