USD/CHF advances as markets await a fresh catalyst

On Tuesday, the USD/CHF traded with mild gains, near the critical 0.8800 zone. On the US side, Thomas Barking from the Federal Reserve (Fed) commented that more tightening may be needed while investors await Wednesday’s PMIs from August and Jerome Powell’s Friday speech. On the CHF side, Switzerland reported a higher than expected Trade Balance deficit in July, which seems to be pressuring the CHF. Besides that, no relevant data will be released on the Swiss front for the rest of the week.

That said, the USD measured by the DXY index upside potential is limited in a risk-positive market environment, with major US stock indexes closing green on Monday’s session. On a positive note, Thomas Barkin from the Fed delivered hawkish comments and stated , “If inflation remains high and demand gives no signal that it is likely to drop, that would require a tighter monetary policy”. As a reaction, US Treasury yields recovered some ground, and hawkish bets may limit further losses for the USD.

Attention is now set to the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will kick off on Thursday, and S&P Global Manufacturing figures from the US from July on Wednesday. Those figures are expected to show a decelerating economic activity but remain in expansion territory and will help investors model their expectations towards the next Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. As for now, markets are still confident that the Fed will pause in September and then bet on higher odds of a hike in November of 25 basis points (bps)

USD/CHF Levels to watch

Analysing the daily chart, it is apparent that the USD/CHF has a neutral to bullish technical stance, with the bulls gradually recovering ground but still not in command. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates positive momentum with an ascending slope above its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) lays out flat green bars.On the other hand, the pair is above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) but below the 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMAs), suggesting that despite the recent bearish sentiment, the bulls are still resilient, holding some momentum.

Support levels: 0.8750 (20-day SMA), 0.8730, 0.8715.

Resistance levels: 0.8800, 0.8820, 0.8850.

USD/CHF Daily chart