USD/CAD Price Analysis: The end of the rally is nigh according to market structure


  • USD/CAD could be about to turn and eyes are on the downside. 
  • Bearish engulfing close to confirm the prospects of a move towards the 38.2% and 50% ratios.

USD/CAD has continued to rally despite what some might perceive to be overextended conditions. The question traders are asking is whether this is now the top?

The US dollar is on fire due to fundamentals yet commodities could be on the verge of a move higher which would lend support to CAD.

Either way, from a technical standpoint, we can assess the price action and multi time frame market structures to determine the probabilities of whether this is, at least, a meanwhile top.

The following analysis will illustrate that USD/CAD's market structure and price action are turning bearish.

USD/CAD monthly chart

The monthly time frame shows multiple failures below resistance and while there is scope for a push to 1.30 the figure, given the strength of April's candle, it is probable that there will need to be a retracement in the coming days before the next push higher. 

USD/CAD weekly chart

We could have some hidden bearish divergence on the weekly time frame if the price forms a lower high for the week and the daily chart could give us some clues. 

USD/CAD daily chart

The price could be forming a daily doji and the bears will be looking for this to be followed by a bearish engulfing close on Thursday to confirm the prospects of a move towards the 38.2% and 50% ratios along the Fibonacci scale that have a confluence with the prior structures. 

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