USD/CAD Price Analysis: Extends recovery to 1.3640


  • USD/CAD bounces back to 1.3640 amid a firm recovery in the US Dollar.
  • Fed officials endorse a restrictive policy stance for longer due to weak conviction over inflation returning to 2%.
  • Investors await the Canada CPI data to project the next move in the Canadian Dollar.

The USD/CAD pair rises further to 1.3640 in Friday’s European session. The Loonie asset capitalizes on strong recovery in the US Dollar that is driven by hawkish guidance on interest rates by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) bounces back to 104.75 from a five-week low of 104.00 posted on Thursday. The market sentiment turns cautious as Fed policymakers see one good consumer inflation print as insufficient to build their confidence that price pressures will sustainably return to the desired rate of 2%. Therefore, Fed policymakers emphasized keeping interest rates at their current levels for a longer period. This scenario is favorable for interest-bearish assets, such as bond yields. 10-year US Treasury yields rise to 4.39%. S&P 500 futures remain subdued in the European session.

Meanwhile, investors await Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, which will be published on Tuesday. The consumer inflation data will significantly influence market expectations for rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC), which investors expect will begin from the June meeting.

USD/CAD rebounds after discovering buying interest near the horizontal support plotted from December 7 high at 1.3620 on a daily timeframe. The downward-sloping trendline from April 16 high at 1.3846 is acting as a major carrier for the US Dollar bulls. The near-term outlook is uncertain as the asset is trading below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.3667.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sharp volatility contraction.

Fresh buying opportunity would emerge if the asset breaks above April 30 high at 1.3785. This would drive the asset towards April 17 high at 1.3838, followed by the round-level resistance of 1.3900.

In an alternate scenario, a breakdown below May 3 low around 1.3600 will expose the asset to the April 9 low around 1.3547 and the psychological support of 1.3500.

USD/CAD daily chart

Economic Indicator

BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)

The BoC Consumer Price Index Core, released by the Bank of Canada (BoC) on a monthly basis, represents changes in prices for Canadian consumers by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. It is considered a measure of underlying inflation as it excludes eight of the most-volatile components: fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation and tobacco products. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

Next release: Tue May 21, 2024 12:30

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: -

Previous: 2%

Source: Statistics Canada

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

GBP/USD consolidates above 1.2700 mark as traders await BoE policy update

GBP/USD consolidates above 1.2700 mark as traders await BoE policy update

GBP/USD ticks lower on Thursday and snaps a three-day winning streak to the weekly top. The USD draws support from rebounding US bond yields and exerts pressure on the major. The downtick lacks follow-through as traders look to the BoE before placing directional bets.

GBP/USD News

EUR/USD escapes Wednesday’s holiday volatility trap, set for wait to meaningful data

EUR/USD escapes Wednesday’s holiday volatility trap, set for wait to meaningful data

EUR/USD cycled on Wednesday with US markets out for a midweek holiday, and the Fiber heads into the back half of the trading week with mid-tier data on the offering, leaving investors to look ahead to Friday’s PMI activity figures for meaningful data releases to drive sentiment in either direction.

EUR/USD News

Gold: Will XAU/USD buyers recapture key resistance near $2.340?

Gold: Will XAU/USD buyers recapture key resistance near $2.340?

Gold price regains upside traction early Thursday after the Juneteenth holiday lull. The US Dollar pauses its decline as Treasury bond yields edge higher amid risk aversion. The daily RSI gradually moves above the midline, supporting the Gold price upside.

Gold News

Bitcoin price continues to plummet as whale activities deepen

Bitcoin price continues to plummet as whale activities deepen

Bitcoin's price fell below $65,000 on Wednesday following Increased whale activities that may be sell orders. Meanwhile, hedge funds have experienced a drag in their Bitcoin exposure, which may be fueled by consistent outflows among Bitcoin ETFs.

Read more

BoE set to leave interest rates unchanged could deliver cautious message on inflation

BoE set to leave interest rates unchanged could deliver cautious message on inflation

BoE is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged for the seventh consecutive meeting on Thursday, despite the recent acceleration of disinflationary pressures in the UK and speculation of two interest rate cuts this year.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures