USD/CAD bounces back as Canadian Dollar weakens, US elections take center stage

USD/CAD rebounds from 1.3900 as the Canadian Dollar weakens on expectations that the BoC will deliver another 50-bps interest rate cut.
The likelihood of tough competition between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for presidential elections has weighed on the US Dollar.
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps on Thursday.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair recovers half of its intraday losses after discovering significant buying interest around the key support of 1.3900. The Loonie asset bounces back despite the US Dollar (USD) remaining vulnerable against its major peers, suggesting sheer weakness in the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

The CAD remains on the backfoot as the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to cut interest rates further in the last monetary policy meeting of the year in December. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem opened doors for another 50 basis points (bps) interest rate reduction in December.

“We’ve demonstrated we’re prepared to do a 50-basis-points cut if we think that’s appropriate. And if we think it’s appropriate to do it again, we’ll do it again,” Macklem told to Senate Committee on Wednesday. Macklem emphasized the need to lower interest rates unless he sees surprises from economic developments. The BoC also reduced its interest rates by 50 bps to 3.75% in its policy meeting in October.

For more interest rate guidance, investors will pay close attention to BoC's Summary of Deliberations and the minutes of the policy meeting of October, which will be published on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar faces intense selling pressure as recent United States (US) national polls have shown that there would be fierce competition between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump for presidential elections on Tuesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, tumbles to near 103.70.

This week, investors will also focus on the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting, which is scheduled on Thursday. The Fed is expected to reduce interest rates by 25 bps to 4.50%-4.75%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Economic Indicator

BoC Summary of Deliberations

The Bank of Canada (BoC) publishes the Summary of Deliberations from its Governing Council about two weeks after its Interest Rate Decision meeting. The document provides insights into the BoC officials' discussions about their monetary policy decisions. The BoC started publishing this document in 2023. Despite its delayed publication, it can have some impact on the Canadian Dollar.

EUR/USD deflates to fresh lows, targets 1.1600

The selling pressure on EUR/USD now gathers extra pace, prompting the pair to hit fresh multi-week lows in the 1.1625-1.1620 band on Friday. The continuation of the downward bias comes in response to further gains in the US Dollar as market participants continue to assess the mixed release of US Nonfarm Payrolls in December.

GBP/USD breaks below 1.3400, challenges the 200-day SMA

GBP/USD remains under heavy fire and retreats for the fourth consecutive day on Friday. Indeed, Cable suffers the strong performance of the Greenback, intensified post-mixed NFP, and trades at shouting distance from its critical 200-day SMA near 1.3380.

Gold flirts with yearly tops around $4,500

Gold keeps its positive bias on Friday, adding to Thursday’s advance and challenging yearly highs in the $4,500 region per troy ounce. The risk-off sentiment favours the yellow metal despite the firmer tone in the Greenback and rising US Treasury yields.