US Initial Jobless Claims Preview: USD appeal to disappear in absence of new lockdowns

Initial Claims are forecast to slip to 1.375 million from 1.427 million whereas Continuing Claims are expected to be at 18.95 million, down 24% from peak. Joseph Trevisani, an analyst at FXStreet, notes that USD is modestly lower on good US economic data as ebbs virus fears despite the rise in cases.

Key quotes

“Initial Claims are predicted to fall to 1.375 million in the week of July 3 from 1.427 million prior while Continuing Claims are projected to drop to 18.95 million from 19.29 million. The four-week moving average for Initial Claims was 1.503 million in the June 26 week.”

“Millions of workers are being rehired at a much faster pace than anticipated as most of the economy liberalizes pandemic restrictions. At the same time businesses continue to fail from the prolonged closures. In many urban areas, especially on the coasts, the commercial traffic needed to sustain restaurants, bars and small shops, remains far below normal levels. This development indicates that the recovery, however fast, will not easily provide jobs for the unknown number of workers whose employers are permanently closed.”

“The dollar is being pulled in two directions. On one side the improving economic data in the US has greatly subdued the pandemic risk-premium. At the same time, the rising tide of coronavirus cases, even if not accompanied by increasing fatalities, has stoked fears of the long-bruited second wave of the pandemic. Unless most of the US resumes lockdowns of the scale and duration of March and April the current flirtation with the risk dollar will eventually disappear.”