US Dollar Index sees a downside to near 111.00 amid lower consensus for US NFP

  • The DXY may decline towards 111.00 after surrendering the immediate support of 111.47.
  • A downbeat US ISM Manufacturing PMI data is the leading downside trigger this week.
  • Investors are also discounting the weaker consensus for the US NFP data.

The US dollar index (DXY) is oscillating around the critical support of 111.48 in the Tokyo session. The asset is expected to deliver a downside break and will decline further towards the cushion of 111.00. For the past two trading sessions, the DXY bulls are attempting to cross 112.50 but a failure in doing the same weakened the DXY.

Downbeat Manufacturing PMI leads the downside triggers

A downbeat reading of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI has raised concerns over the sustainability of the longer-term upside bias in the DXY. The extent of manufacturing activities is declining in the US economy as higher inflationary pressures have trimmed retail demand by the households and eventually forced the producers not to exploit their entire capacity.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.9 vs. the expectations of 52.2 and the prior release of 52.8. Apart from that, weaker New Orders Index data has also plunged. The economic indicator that reflects forward demand for manufacturing activities slipped to 47.1 against the projections of 49.6 and the former figure of 51.3.

Lower consensus for the US NFP data

Subdued preliminary estimates for the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data is been discounting the market participants. As expected, the US economy created 250k jobs in September, lower than the August reading of 315k. The US economy has been maintaining full employment levels, therefore, space for generating more employment is extremely less. Adding to that, the escalating Federal Reserve (Fed)’s interest rates are also restricting the corporate to continue their hiring programs with sheer pace.

What could dampen the DXY’s appeal further is the Average Hourly Earnings data. The projections are indicating a soft landing at 5.1% vs. the prior release of 5.2%. In time, when households are facing the headwinds of mounting inflation, lower earnings would be insufficient to offset the inflated payouts.

Dollar Index Spot

Today last price 111.69
Today Daily Change 0.05
Today Daily Change % 0.04
Today daily open 111.64
Daily SMA20 111
Daily SMA50 108.9
Daily SMA100 106.79
Daily SMA200 102.63
Previous Daily High 112.54
Previous Daily Low 111.47
Previous Weekly High 114.78
Previous Weekly Low 111.57
Previous Monthly High 114.78
Previous Monthly Low 107.67
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 111.88
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 112.13
Daily Pivot Point S1 111.23
Daily Pivot Point S2 110.81
Daily Pivot Point S3 110.15
Daily Pivot Point R1 112.3
Daily Pivot Point R2 112.96
Daily Pivot Point R3 113.38



Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended content

Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

GBP/USD eases toward 1.2350 ahead of BoE policy announcements

GBP/USD eases toward 1.2350 ahead of BoE policy announcements

GBP/USD is easing toward 1.2350 in the European trading hours this 'Super Thursday'. Pound Sterling bulls take a breather ahead of the expected BoE 50 bps rate hike. The US Dollar pauses its decline, fuelled by the dovish Fed verdict. 


EUR/USD hovers around 1.1000, as ECB decision looms

EUR/USD hovers around 1.1000, as ECB decision looms

EUR/USD is holding mild gains around 1.1000, as buyers keep the reins ahead of the ECB policy decision. The pair is sitting close to the highest level in 10 months, as the US Dollar licks the dovish Fed decision-inflicted wounds. The Euro remains underpinned by hawkish ECB expectations. 


Gold juggles above $1,950 as risk-on mood loses momentum ahead of US NFP

Gold juggles above $1,950 as risk-on mood loses momentum ahead of US NFP

Gold price is facing barricades in extending range towards the north as USD Index is attempting a cushion around 100.50. Going forward, the US NFP data will be of utmost importance.

Gold News

Altcoin ascension: MAGIC, Optimism and Stargate Finance rally 20% after Powell's comments

Altcoin ascension: MAGIC, Optimism and Stargate Finance rally 20% after Powell's comments

MAGIC, Optimism and Stargate Finance have rallied beyond 20% after the US Fed’s policy meeting on Wednesday. The rallies are facing crucial hurdles and could trigger a correction.

Read more

BoE Interest Rate Decision Preview: The last 50 bps hike but not the end yet Premium

BoE Interest Rate Decision Preview: The last 50 bps hike but not the end yet

The Bank of England (BoE) is set to begin 2023 with yet another 50 basis points (bps) rate hike, with Governor Andrew Bailey hinting at further monetary policy tightening. 

Read more