Political iceberg hits the market – UBS

The UK general election result is now clear (for the benefit of US readers, many countries are able to get a definitive result within hours of voting having concluded). The result was entirely as expected by markets, with the Labour Party winning a sizable majority, UBS macro analyst Paul Donovan suggests.

UK election result is clear, France is underway

“Two larger points from the UK vote: the UK has generally avoided the prejudice politics that has emerged elsewhere (and which will be visible in France in the weekend’s elections). It also appears that the Israel-Hamas war impacted votes. In a world of social media, international events may seem more local, and have a bearing on elections that they have not traditionally had.”

“The US employment report is likely to continue to give mixed signals on the US labor market. Remember that over half the companies asked for payrolls numbers do not give any response. While the fear of unemployment seems contained, the broader picture hints at some labor market cooling.”

“European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde speaks again, updating markets with just how much has changed since she last spoke. On Wednesday. US President Biden is giving a television interview, but markets are not likely to react to this specifically.”