|

S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq (QQQ) Day Ahead: Can the Fed pump anymore after weak jobs report

Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 7:

Well, that was an interesting jobs report. Not too many people were forecasting that one. In case you missed it, nonfarm payrolls were forecast to come in around the 1 million jobs gained but instead the US only added 266K.

Markets swung around after the release, the 10-year yield dumped to 1.5%, Gold popped to $1,840, and the dollar slumped to $1.2140 versus the euro.

There are two ways of looking at this. First, rates are set low forever, there is certainly no chance of a taper, funds keep flowing to equities. The Nasdaq certainly is following this logic with futures and QQQ jumping 1% straight after the jobs report. The more pessimistic or realistic among you may be thinking: Wow, all that Fed stimulus is still not creating jobs! How bad would it be if the Fed steps away? Hmmm, sobering.

European markets are all higher, FTSE +0.1%, Eurostoxx +0.1%, and Dax +0.9%.

US futures are also higher with the Nasdaq +1.4%, S&P +0.4%, and the Dow +0.1%.

Wall Street top news

Nonfarm payrolls increase by a disappointing 266K versus an expected gain of 1 million.

UK and EU continue to haggle over the Northern Ireland BREXIT compromise. UK and France haggle over Jersey, and Scottish parliament vote revolves around independence this weekend. 

ECB says a decision may be made in June to slow bond purchases. The Fed says please do not!

Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) have started the application process with US FDA for full covid vaccine approval.

Tesla (TSLA) tells California regulators it may not have self-driving cars by end of 2021.

TWTR: suspends several accounts linked to share statements from former President Trump's website.

Kansas City Southern (KSU): US regulator approves voting trust for Canadian Pacific's proposed acquisition of KSU.

Peloton earnings not as bad as feared post treadmill recall. Shares jump 3% premarket.

AIG beat earnings estimates after the close on Thursday.

Expedia (EXPE): beats earnings estimates, shares up 6% premarket.

AMC earnings after the close were worse than expected, but the bullish conference call (is there any other type?) sees shares gain 3% premarket.

Roku: beats earnings estimates, shares jump 11% premarket.

BILL.com beats earnings, shares jump 11% premarket.

Datadog (DDOG): beats earnings estimates, shares jump 11% premarket.

Cloudflare (NET): beats earnings estimates, shares up 8%.

Shake Shack (SHAK): misses earnings estimates, shares down 7% premarket.

Cinemark (CNK): follows AMC lead and talks bullishly on cinema reopenings, stock up 1% premarket.

DraftKings (DKNG): reports a smaller than expected loss, shares up 4% premarket.

Dropbox (DBX): beats earnings estimates, shares up 3% premarket.

Ups and downs

ConocoPhilips (COP): Raymond James upgrades. 

ViacomCBS (VIAC): Wells Fargo and RBC upgrades.

Funko (FKNO): DADavidson upgrades.

Tapestry (TPR): BTIG upgrades.

ETSY: Stifel upgrades.

Tupperware (TUP): Citi upgrades.

Manulife (MFC): RBC downgrades.

Tilray (TLRY): Jefferies upgrades.

ROKU: Loop Capital upgrades.

Economic releases

At the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author is short SPY. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

This article is for information purposes only. The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. It is important to perform your own research before making any investment and take independent advice from a registered investment advisor. 

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, or the suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. 

Errors and omissions excepted.

Author

Ivan Brian

Ivan Brian

FXStreet

Ivan Brian started his career with AIB Bank in corporate finance and then worked for seven years at Baxter. He started as a macro analyst before becoming Head of Research and then CFO.

More from Ivan Brian
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading 

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.