|

S&P 500 bears are moving in but on the front side of bull trend

  • US stocks slammed into the close and erode the NFP knee-jerk rally. 
  • Investors rethink the US data this week and the hawkish sentiment is a dark cloud over Wall Street. 

The S&P 500 (US500) index fell on Friday with weakness intensifying into the close. The US Nonfarm Payrolls data from the Labor Department, which offered a mixed view of the US job market, weighed on market sentiment later in the day. The US500 is down some 0.15% at the time of writing, falling from a high of 4,441.50 and reaching a low of 4,397.2. 

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose 209,000 in June, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. This reading came in below the market expectation of 225,000. May's increase of 339,000 got revised lower to 306,000. The US Dollar came under renewed selling pressure with the initial reaction to the mixed jobs data and the US indexes rallied. However, bears moved in as the combined data this week has suggested the Federal Reserve will likely resume raising interest rates later this month.

For stocks, next week brings quarterly results from some of the big US banks in what will mark the unofficial start of the second-quarter earnings season. As of Friday, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to have fallen 6.4% in the quarter versus a year ago, a forecast that has weakened since July 1, according to IBES Refinitiv data. The US Consumer Price Index will also be a key event. 

US500 technical analysis

A series of breaks of structure to the upside leaves the bull trend intact but a break of 4329 will leave a bearish outlook on the charts. 

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1750 as traders await FOMC Minutes

The EUR/USD pair holds steady near 1.1770 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Traders continue to price in the prospect of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in 2026, following the 25-basis-point rate reduction delivered at the December meeting. The release of the Federal Open Market Committee Minutes will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday.

GBP/USD finds key support near 1.35 despite year-end grind

GBP/USD remains bolstered on the high end as markets grind through the last trading week of the year. Cable caught a bullish tilt to keep price action on the high side of the 1.3500 handle, though year-end holiday volumes are unlikely to see significant progress in either direction as 2025 draws to a close.

Gold rebounds to near $4,350 after Monday's 4+% correction

Gold is bouncing to near $4,350 early Tuesday, helped by renewed US Dollar weakness and a dismal mood. Gold was hit sharply by profit-taking on Monday during US trading hours and retreated towards $4,300, where buyers reappeared.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries, adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).