Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD sees more downside below $29 ahead of US Inflation, Fed policy

Silver price remains under pressure near $29.00 with a focus on the US CPI and the Fed policy outcome.
The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates steady with hawkish guidance.
Investors see the Fed cutting interest rates only once this year.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its downside to near the crucial support of $29.00 in Tuesday’s European session. The white metal weakens as the US Dollar (USD) and bond yields have performed strongly across the board due to a sharp decline in market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting.

Investors see the Fed lowering its key borrowing rates only once this year as fears for price pressures remaining persistent have deepened. The US Dollar Index (DXY) turns sideways after printing a fresh four-week high near 105.40. 10-year US Treasury yields have edged down to 4.44% in the London session but hold its strong recovery from 4.27%.

The next major triggers for the Silver price will be the May United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Fed’s interest rate decision. The CPI data will indicate whether the disinflation process is intact or has stalled. In the first quarter, the CPI report indicated that price pressures were higher than expected, while in April, they declined expectedly.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s decision is expected to remain status quo for the seventh time in a row as policymakers lack evidence that inflation is on course to return to the desired rate of 2%. Investors will focus on the Fed’s dot plot, which will indicate where policymakers see the federal fund rate heading. The CME FedWatch tool shows that 30-day Fed Fund Rate pricing data suggest only one rate-cut move this year.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price trades close to the neckline of the Head and Shoulder (H&S) chart pattern, which is marked from May 24 low at $30.05 on a four-hour timeframe. A breakdown of the above-mentioned chart pattern results in a bearish reversal.

The near-term outlook remains uncertain after a bearish crossover of 20 and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $30.50.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped into the 20.00-40.00 range, suggesting that the momentum has leaned toward the downside.

Silver four-hour chart

(This story was corrected on June 11 at 10:55 GMT to say, in the technical analysis section, that the neckline of the Head and Shoulders chart pattern is marked from the May 24 low at $30.05, not from the April 9 high at 1.0885.)

XAG/USD

Overview
Today last price	29.14
Today Daily Change	-0.61
Today Daily Change %	-2.05
Today daily open	29.75

Trends
Daily SMA20	30.62
Daily SMA50	28.78
Daily SMA100	26.13
Daily SMA200	24.66

Levels
Previous Daily High	29.82
Previous Daily Low	29.14
Previous Weekly High	31.55
Previous Weekly Low	29.12
Previous Monthly High	32.51
Previous Monthly Low	26.02
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	29.56
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	29.4
Daily Pivot Point S1	29.31
Daily Pivot Point S2	28.88
Daily Pivot Point S3	28.63
Daily Pivot Point R1	30
Daily Pivot Point R2	30.25
Daily Pivot Point R3	30.69

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

AUD/USD: Recovery appears capped by 0.7000

AUD/USD has reversed a multi-day positive streak, briefly revisiting the 0.6940 region before trimming part of those gains to end the day modestly on the back foot. The better tone in the Greenback has kept the pair under pressure, which has so far met decent contention in the vicinity of the 0.6900 zone. Moving forward, the Melbourne Institute’s Consumer Inflation Expectations is next on tap in Oz.

USD/JPY holds firm near 158.50 ahead of Fed Minutes

USD/JPY hangs close to a one-and-a-half-week high near 158.50 in the Asian session on Wednesday, with bulls now awaiting a move beyond the 200-day SMA hurdle before positioning for further gains ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Meanwhile, a fresh leg up in US bond yields revives US Dollar demand amid geopolitical uncertainties, boosting the pair amid dovish BoJ commentary.

Gold trims losses, back above $4,100

Gold now manages to regain some balance, returning to the area above the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce following the closing bell in Europe on Wednesday. The yellow metal’s sharp pullback comes in tandem with marked gains in the US Dollar and a marked bounce in US Treasury yields across the curve.

Bitcoin vs Gold: BTC and XAU fall amid macro headwinds, but Ray Dalio still prefers Gold

Bitcoin (BTC) edges lower on Wednesday, trading near $83,000. The broader correction in the cryptocurrency market can be attributed to heavily leveraged long liquidations, macro and geopolitical pressure reducing risk appetite. Gold (XAU/USD), similarly, remains in bearish hands as it tests short-term support at $4,100.

Fed Minutes: Officials saw inflation risks worsening before September hike

All participants at the Federal Reserve's (Fed) September 15–16 meeting supported the 25-basis-point rate increase, while most judged that another hike would probably be appropriate by the end of the year. The Minutes show policymakers increasingly focused on upside inflation risks, a resilient economy and the possibility that strong AI investment could add to demand pressures.

The UK 30-year gilt just hit a 1998 high. Is that good or bad for the British Pound?

The yield on the UK's 30-year government bond, or gilt, went through 6% on October 1 for the first time since early 1998, and on Monday the Pound was at its strongest against the Euro since June 2025. The gilt market's 28-year high is mostly someone else's. Since early May, the 30-year gilt yield has risen about 0.15 of a percentage point and the US 30-year about 0.7.