Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD recovers to near $31.00 on sticky US inflation report
- Silver price bounces back to near $31.00 after the US inflation report, which showed that price pressures remain sticky.
- Annual headline and core CPI rose by 2.6% and 3.3%, respectively, as expected.
- The optimism on Trump trades will keep the Silver price edgy.
Silver price (XAG/USD) holds recovery to near $31.00 in Wednesday’s North American session after the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that price pressures remain sticky as the annual headline inflation accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4% in September.
The core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – rose in line with estimates and the former release of 3.3%. On month, the headline and core inflation grew expectedly by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.
Sticky price pressures are less likely to impact market speculation for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts in December as officials are more worried about preventing job losses, with high confidence over inflation remaining on track toward the bank’s target of 2%.
After the US inflation data release, the US Dollar Index (DXY) drops slightly but clung to gains near 106.00. 10-year US Treasury yields slide to near 4.38%.
The overall outlook of the Silver price remains weak on so-called “Trump trades” as demand for those assets that are expected to perform better in US President-elected Donald Trump’s administration is upbeat.
Therefore, the Silver price could face selling pressure as Trump’s policies, such as higher import tariffs by 10% and lower corporate taxes, would boost US economic growth and price pressures, a scenario that will be favorable for US bond yields as the Federal Reserve (Fed) would be needed to keep interest rates restrictive. Historically, higher yields on interest-bearing assets increase the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price remains on track toward the upward-sloping trendline around $29.00, plotted from February 28 low of $22.30. The white metal weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from May 21 high of $32.50.
The near-term trend of the Silver price has weakened as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) starts declining, which trades around $32.00.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 40.00. A bearish momentum will trigger if the RSI (14) sustains below the same.
Silver daily chart
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Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
