Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD faces slight pressure below $34 ahead of busy US data week
- Silver price faces marginal pressure below $34.00 with an array of US data in focus.
- Investors will keenly focus on the US labor market and the economic growth data for fresh interest rate guidance.
- Iran-Israel tensions would keep the downside in the Silver price limited.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades cautiously below the key resistance of $34.00 in Monday’s North American session. The white metal faces slight pressure as traders brace for an array of United States (US) economic data to be published this week.
Investors will pay close attention to labor market-related data, Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), and the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data to get fresh cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely interest rate action in the remainder of the year.
Currently, financial market participants expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in both the policy meetings in November and December. With decent confidence among Fed officials that the disinflationary trend is intact, the labor market and the GDP data will be keenly watched to understand the quantum of economic risks.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against ix major currencies, retreats after failing to extend its upside above an almost three-week high of 104.60. 10-year US Treasury yields trade sideways near 4.23%.
On the geopolitical front, war between Israel and Iran will continue to keep the Silver price well-supported. Israel launched airstrikes on Iran’s defense-manufacturing capacity over the weekend. After the attack, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “We promised we would respond to the Iranian attack, and on Saturday we struck. The attack in Iran was precise and powerful, achieving all of its objectives”, Home Newsday reported.
The scenario of deepening geopolitical tensions bodes well for precious metals, such as Silver price, as investors consider them a safe-haven bet.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price trades inside Friday’s trading range in North American trading hours on Monday. The white metal strives to revisit a fresh over 12-year high near $35.00. The asset strengthened after breaking above the horizontal resistance plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50 on a daily timeframe, which will act as support for now. Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $32.55 signals more upside ahead.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays in the 60.00-80.00, pointing to an active bullish momentum.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
