- The British Pound is still in snooze mode on Monday.
- UK Manufacturing PMI comes in line with expectations at 52.5 in August.
- The US Dollar Index opens up steadily, with US markets closed for public holidays.
The British Pound (GBP) holds on to marginal gains during the European trading session on Monday, with US markets closed in observance of Labor Day. This means very slim volumes, even thinner than on a typical Monday. However, the UK market already had to digest the S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector this morning, which fell in line as expected at 52.5.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) – which gauges the value of the US Dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies – is still recovering from a chunky selloff over a week ago. Last week, though, the Greenback recovered on some strong US economic data, which might limit the initial rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to only 25 basis points in September. With more PMI data set to come out this week and the US Jobs reports on Friday, it will all depend on this week’s data to confirm the interest rate cut size next week.
Daily digest market movers: Supportive still
- S&P Global released its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August, coming at 52.5, the same pace as the previous month.
- US markets are closed in observance of Labor Day on Monday.
- The CME Fedwatch Tool shows a 69.0% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed in September against a 31.0% chance for a 50 bps cut. Another 25 bps cut (if September is a 25 bps cut) is expected in November by 48.9%, while there is a 42.0% chance that rates will be 75 bps (25 bps + 50 bps) below the current levels and a 9.1% probability of rates being 100 (25 bps + 75 bps) basis points lower.
- Regarding the Bank of England (BoE), markets are pricing in no rate cut for the September 19 meeting, while the November 7 decision has an 87.2% near certainty of seeing the BoE cut rates by 25 basis points.
- The US 10-year benchmark rate trades at 3.90% and will not move on Monday due to the US bank holidays.
- The UK 10-year Gilt Benchmark trades at 4.06% and popped higher on Monday after closing at 4.01% on Friday.
- European equities are set to close off this Monday with some minor losses while the FTSE 100 in the UK is set to close even with a minor gain, outperforming even US futures.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Building up to NFP
The British Pound trades phenomenally high, at levels not seen since July 2023 against the US Dollar. The recent retracement last week is more than welcome, and now traders who want to go long GBP/USD will need to identify support levels on where it makes sense to get in for a retest of at least the year-to-date high, near 1.3237, or 1.33 for a fresh high.
On the downside, the moving averages are too far for now to offer any kind of support. It is better to look at a bounce off the upper band of the trend channel that was well respected during the past six months, at around 1.3120. In case that level does not hold, 1.3044 looks to be a nice nearby platform that worked as a resistance in August. Should more downfall occur, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2869 falls nicely in line with a pivotal level since June 2023 at 1.2849, just 20 pips away from each other as a strong support area.
GBP/USD Daily Chart
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element in assessing the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels because low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given their significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
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