Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting at UOB Group comment on the recently published GDP figures in the Philippines.
Key Takeaways
“The Philippines’ economy held up its strong growth momentum with 2Q22 GDP growing 7.4% y/y (1Q22: revised down to +8.2% from +8.3% previously). The reading exceeded our estimate (+6.3%) but came in below Bloomberg consensus (+8.4%). It was largely credited to the easing of COVID19 restrictions on mobility, election-related spending, and continued government policy support during the quarter.”
“We raise our 2022 full-year GDP growth forecast to 7.0% (from 6.5% previously, official est: 6.5%7.5%), purely reflecting the robust economic growth of 7.8% in 1H22. For 2H22, we continue to expect the growth momentum to be considerably held back to around 6.4% as headwinds to growth have intensified. To counter lingering downside risks, a safe full reopening of the economy with higher national vaccination rates against COVID-19, broad policy continuity post presidential elections, and resilient overseas cash remittances are key to sustain the growth momentum in the near term.”
“Both the upbeat inflation for Jul and 2Q22 GDP numbers justify a continuation of monetary policy normalisation this month (Aug) after the unscheduled 75bps hike last month (14 Jul) and two back-to-back increases of 25bps each in May and Jun. We have revised our BSP rate call last Fri (5 Aug) for a 50bps hike in the RRP rate to 3.75% on 18 Aug (vs 25bps previously).”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD retreats from multi-week highs, holds above 1.0800
After climbing to its highest level in over a month above 1.0850 with the immediate reaction to the April inflation data from the US, EUR/USD erased a portion of its daily gains and declined below this level. The improvement seen in risk mood, however, helps the pair hold its ground.
GBP/USD clings to daily gains above 1.2600
GBP/USD pulled away from the monthly high it set above 1.2650 but managed to stabilize in positive territory above 1.2600. The US Dollar stays under modest bearish pressure as markets assess the underlying details of the inflation report and how they could influence the Fed's rate outlook.
Gold reaches fresh monthly highs, aims for $2,400
Gold trades modestly higher on the day above $2,360 in the American session. The data from the US showed that annual inflation edged lower to 3.4% in April as expected. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the red below 4.4%, allowing XAU/USD to keep its footing.
Ripple’s discounts for institutional clients stir debate among attorneys discussing SEC lawsuit
Ripple price consolidates in a tight range around $0.50 on Wednesday as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) legal battle against payment-remittance firm Ripple intensifies with two key issues in focus this week.
US inflation and Retail Sales data add to pressure on Fed to signal rate cut
The US CPI report for April was mostly in line with expectations. The annual rate for headline price growth fell to 3.4% from 3.5%, while the core rate declined to 3.6% from 3.8%.