Oil near $80 as OPEC+ deal is struck
- WTI Oil books over 1% gains as OPEC+ meeting is near an agreement.
- The US Dollar is roaring back after a few days of substantial weakness.
- Oil very volatile ahead of a possible OPEC+ outcome later this Thursday.
Oil prices are back to levels over 1% in the green as markets were nervous during the OPEC+ meeting. The deal is constructed to erase 2.4 million barrels per day out of production. The biggest part, one-third, will come from Russia in order to circumvent the veto from African nations Angola and Nigeria, who refused to bear any production cuts.
The US Dollar (USD) meanwhile is trying to set the record straight as markets might have devalued the Greenback a touch too much. While focussing on the end of the hiking cycle for the US Federal Reserve, markets got caught by surprise of a sudden substantial decline in the Eurozone in both its growth and inflation. At this pace, the Eurozone might even fall back into deflation by next year, which means quicker cuts, and thus again a widening rate differential which in its turn would favour a stronger US Dollar.
Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $79.14 per barrel and Brent Oil trades at $83.93 per barrel at the time of writing.
Oil news and market movers: OPEC+ deal done
- According to people close to the OPEC+ meeting, a deal of 2.4 million barrels per day production cut is on the table, with Russia bearing one third of that volume. A statement is due to be released
- The OPEC+ meeting started around 10:30 GMT. Both Nigeria and Angola approved a production cut in June, but are now backtracking on that promise.
- Recent numbers reveal that the opposing countries, Nigeria and Angola, are not meeting their maximum production quotas.
- All eyes of course will be on whether Saudi Arabia will succeed in passing on production cuts to all members, in order to create a substantial floor in Oil prices.
- Despite the surprise builds or less-than-expected draw downs from the US stockpile numbers measured by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Oil prices keep soaring as the OPEC+ meeting is the leading story.
Oil Technical Analysis: Not what markets wanted
Oil prices will have a very eventful day as headlines emerge throughout the day on either a deal or no-deal on production quotas for all OPEC+ members. Commodity Traders will have their work cut out. Although an outcome is hard to predict, some deal will certainly get done as the current lacklustre demand side is likely to be countered by some production cuts, borne by at least sum or most OPEC+ members in order to create price stability.
On the upside, $80.00 is the resistance to watch out for. Should crude be able to jump above that again, look for $84.00 (purple line) as the next level to see some selling pressure or profit taking. Should Oil prices be able to consolidate above there, the topside for this fall near $93.00 could come back into play.
On the downside, traders are seeing a soft floor forming near $74.00. This level is acting as the last line of defence before entering $70.00 and lower. Watch out for $67.00 with that triple bottom from June as the next support level to trade at.
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US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart
WTI Oil FAQs
What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Filip Lagaart
FXStreet
Filip Lagaart is a former sales/trader with over 15 years of financial markets expertise under its belt.
