- NZD/USD stages a modest bounce from a nearly four-week low touched earlier this Wednesday.
- A modest USD weakness lends some support, though looming recession risks act as a headwind.
- Investors also seem reluctant ahead of the crucial US CPI report and the FOMC meeting minutes.
The NZD/USD pair's rebound from a nearly four-week low peters out this Wednesday and continues to trade below the 0.6200 mark during the early European session.
The US Dollar (USD) languishes near the weekly low amid growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle and assists the NZD/USD pair to attract some buying in the vicinity of mid-0.6100s. Traders, meanwhile, are still pricing in a greater chance of a 25 bps lift-off at the next FOMC meeting in May. This, for the time being, puts a floor under the US Treasury bond yields, which acts as a tailwind for the Greenback.
Apart from this, worries about a deeper global economic downturn lend some support to the safe-haven buck and contribute to capping the risk-sensitive Kiwi. In fact, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday trimmed its 2023 global growth outlook, citing the impact of higher interest rates. Furthermore, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned that tightening credit conditions due to monetary policy actions could lead to a recession.
Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of the US consumer inflation figures, due later during the early North American session. This will be followed by the FOMC meeting minutes, which will be looked upon for clues about the Fed's rate-hike path. The key releases will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and determining the next leg of a directional move for the NZD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, acceptance below the 0.6200 round figure could be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and supports prospects for further losses. That said, the emergence of some buying at lower levels warrants some caution. This mixed technical setup makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before confirming that the recent pullback from the 0.6380 area, or the highest level since February 14 has run its course and positioning for any further gains.
Technical levels to watch
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