NZD/USD stays below 0.6200 as traders adopt caution ahead of US labor data
- NZD/USD extends its losses ahead of key economic data scheduled for release later in the week.
- The decline in the US Treasury yields puts downward pressure on the Greenback.
- The New Zealand Dollar depreciates as China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 51.6 in August from 52.1 in July.
NZD/USD continues its losing streak for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 0.6180 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The downside of the NZD/USD pair could be attributed to the cautious stance adopted by market participants ahead of key economic data due this week, including the ISM Services PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). This data could shed light on the potential size of an expected rate cut by the Fed this month.
The US Dollar depreciates due to lower Treasury yields. 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds stand at 3.86% and 3.83%, respectively, at the time of writing. However, the Greenback received support after the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The index inched up to 47.2 in August from 46.8 in July, falling short of market expectations of 47.5. This marks the 21st contraction in US factory activity over the past 22 months.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces downward pressure as China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 51.6 in August from 52.1 in July. This drop is significant given the strong trade relationship between China and New Zealand.
Additionally, Bank of America (BoA) has revised its economic growth forecast for China, lowering its 2024 projection to 4.8% from the previous 5.0%. For 2025, the forecast is adjusted to 4.5% growth, while the 2026 outlook remains unchanged at 4.5%.
In August, New Zealand's ANZ Commodity Price Index increased by 2.1%, rebounding from a 1.7% drop in July. In a Bloomberg interview on Wednesday, Martin Foo, Director at S&P Global Ratings, cautioned that “New Zealand’s current account deficit needs to narrow further.” Foo added that while he is broadly comfortable with New Zealand’s sovereign rating outlook, he is “closely watching the country’s large current-account deficit and weak economic growth.”
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
