NZD/USD rallies to multi-week highs after soft US NFPs

NZD/USD rose by more than 1% to 0.5990, its highest since mid October.
The US reported weak NFPs, which triggered a sharp decline in US yields and hawkish bets on the Fed.
Eyes on inflation figures from the US from October.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

On Friday, the NZD/USD rallied, driven by the US Dollar facing notable selling pressure after the release of the soft labour market, which triggered a decline in US Treasury yields and hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) for the December meeting. On the Kiwi’s side, no relevant data was released.

The latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered a blow to market expectations, with the Nonfarm Payrolls for October falling short of projections. The report revealed an addition of 150,000 jobs in the US economy, trailing the anticipated 180,000 and showing a slowdown from the revised prior figure of 297,000. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate for the same period rose to 3.9%, surpassing the projected 3.8%.

Moreover, the Average Hourly Earnings for October exhibited a sluggish monthly growth of 0.2% but managed to climb to 4.1% YoY, surpassing the expected 4% and outpacing the previous figure of 4.3%.

Simultaneously, the US Treasury yields continue to decline, with the 2-year rate hitting its lowest mark since early September at 4.83%. Correspondingly, the longer-term 5 and 10-year rates retreated to approximately 4.50% and 4.54%. Regarding the December meeting of the Fed, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis points hike in declined to a mere 9%, exacerbating the selling pressure on the Greenback.

On November 14th, the US will report inflation rate figures from October, which investors will closely watch to continue modelling their expectations.

NZD/USD Levels to watch

Based on the daily chart, NZD/USD maintains a neutral to bullish technical perspective, indicating that the bulls are making strides in regaining control and gathering significant momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains a positive slope above its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) histogram exhibits bigger green bars.

However, despite being above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the pair is still below the 100 and 200-day, indicating that on the broader outlook, the bears are in command.

Support levels: 0.5930, 0.5910, 0.5900.

Resistance levels: 0.6000, 0.6020 (100-day SMA), 0.6050.

NZD/USD Daily Chart

NZD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.5984
Today Daily Change	0.0085
Today Daily Change %	1.44
Today daily open	0.5899

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.5889
Daily SMA50	0.5913
Daily SMA100	0.6022
Daily SMA200	0.6122

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.5918
Previous Daily Low	0.5838
Previous Weekly High	0.5874
Previous Weekly Low	0.5772
Previous Monthly High	0.6056
Previous Monthly Low	0.5772
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.5887
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.5868
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.5852
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.5805
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.5772
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.5932
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.5965
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6012

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold remains range-bound below $4,200

Gold has given up some ground after an initial bullish attempt to reach weekly highs, returning to below the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The US Dollar’s strong upside momentum, combined with rising US Treasury yields across the curve, seems to keep further gains in the yellow metal under scrutiny.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?

The Euro is not the sick man of Europe. France's bond market is

EUR/USD remains under pressure, near the 17-month low of 1.1161 reached on Monday. The pair has lost more than 7% since its yearly peak, as concerns over France's public finances increasingly weigh on the single currency. But behind the weakness of the Euro (EUR), the problem does not necessarily lie with the European economy as a whole.