NZD/USD Price Analysis: At make or a break around 0.6300

NZD/USD drops gradually from 0.6360 amid recovery in the US Dollar.
Investors see the Fed reducing interest rates from March 2024.
NZD/USD delivers a breakdown of the upward-sloping chart pattern.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The NZD/USD pair faces nominal sell-off near 0.6360 as the US Dollar has attempted a recovery move despite thin trading activity. The Kiwi asset struggled to extend recovery as the higher risk-appetite of the market participants is fading away.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded to near 101.20 but the broader appeal is still bearish as investors hope that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates from March 2024. Consistently easing price pressures and labour market conditions would allow Fed policymakers to endorse rate cut decision.

Next week, further action in the US Dollar will be guided by the Manufacturing PMI and the Employment data for December. While the New Zealand Dollar will be in action due to the release of the Caixin manufacturing PMI data for December.

NZD/USD is at a make or a break level around 0.6300. The asset has delivered a breakdown of the Rising Channel chart pattern formed on an hourly scale. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has started declining, which indicates that the near-term trend has turned bearish.

A range shift move by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) into the 20.00-60.00 region from the bullish territory of 40.00-80.00 indicates a bearish momentum.

Fresh downside move appear if the asset drops below December 25 low at 0.6246. This would expose the asset to November 29 high at 0.6208 and December 14 low at 0.6168.

In an alternate scenario, a recovery move above December 28 high of 0.6370 would drive the asset towards December 26 high near 0.6410. Breach of the latter would open upside for February 2 near 0.6463.

NZD/USD hourly chart

NZD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.631
Today Daily Change	-0.0022
Today Daily Change %	-0.35
Today daily open	0.6332

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6221
Daily SMA50	0.6061
Daily SMA100	0.5998
Daily SMA200	0.6092

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.637
Previous Daily Low	0.6323
Previous Weekly High	0.6329
Previous Weekly Low	0.6186
Previous Monthly High	0.6208
Previous Monthly Low	0.5788
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6341
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6352
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6313
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6294
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6266
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.636
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6388
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6407

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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