In view of FX Strategists at UOB Group, NZD/USD could drop further on a breakdown of the 0.6300 handle.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “NZD traded sideways for most of yesterday but dropped sharply during NY hours and tested the strong support at 0.6300 (low of 0.6300). While the underlying tone is weak, 0.6300 remains as a strong support. Overall, a dip below 0.6300 is not ruled out but any weakness is viewed as a lower trading range of 0.6295/0.6345 (a sustained decline below 0.6295 is not expected).

Next 1-3 weeks: “While our view from Monday (16 Sep, spot at 0.6380) that “a short-term top is in place” was not wrong, the price action since then has weaker than anticipated. From here, if NZD were to register a NY close below 0.6300, it would increase the risk of a break of September’s 0.6270 low (next support is at 0.6230). The prospect for such a move is not that high for now but would increase quickly unless NZD can move and stay above 0.6360 within these 1 to 2 days”.

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