There should be no surprises from the Polish central bank (NBP) today. It is consensus that it will keep the key interest rate at 5.75%, where it has stood since October last year, Commerzbank’s FX Analyst Antje Praefcke notes.
NBP's restrictive stance is a supportive factor for PLN
“The prevailing opinion in the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) is that interest rates cannot be lowered further until next year at the earliest. Even the head of the central bank, Adam Glapinsiki, who had long said that key interest rates would remain unchanged until 2026, recently changed his stance and no longer wanted to rule out a discussion about cuts in 2025. However, interest rates are likely to remain at their current levels until at least the end of the year.”
“Inflation stood at 4.30% in August, with core inflation at 3.8%, which is still above the inflation target (2.5% +/-1%). This underpins the NBP's stance, especially as price pressure has recently increased again somewhat. At tomorrow's press conference, Glapinski is likely to confirm the NBP's view that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. No surprises are to be expected here either, so the decision for the PLN should be neutral.”
“We have often pointed out that the monetary policy considerations of the decision-makers are likely to be politically motivated, which justifies a risk premium on the zloty in the medium term. At the moment, however, the market still sees the NBP's restrictive stance as a supportive factor for the zloty.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds firm near 1.1100 ahead of US NFP, Powell
EUR/USD is holding ground near 1.1100 in the early European morning on Friday. Recession fears due to a global trade war lft Fed rate cut expectations, exacerbating the US Dollar's pain while keeping the pair afloat. Traders look to the US NFP report and Fed Chair Powell's speech for fresh directives.
GBP/USD retakes 1.3100 as US NFP data looms
GBP/USD is defending minor bids above 1.3100 in early Europe on Friday. Persistent US Dollar weakness on recession fears and dovish Fed expectations underpin the pair as traders look forward to the US payrolls data and Fed Chair Powell speech for placing fresh bets.
Gold price hovers near $3,100; bullish bias remains ahead of US NFP report
Gold price meets with a fresh supply on Friday, though the downside potential seems limited. Trump’s tariffs-inspired risk-off mood might continue to act as a tailwind for the precious metal. Fed rate cut bets weigh on the USD and should contribute to limiting losses for the XAU/USD pair.
XRP finds new lifeline as Coinbase Derivatives eyes XRP futures on April 21
Ripple price reclaims the $2.00 support level and trades at $2.06 at the time of writing on Friday in the wake of a drawdown to $1.96 during Thursday’s session. Traders continue to exercise caution after Trump’s tariffs hit 100 countries, as per a CryptoQuant report.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on the way
United States (US) President Donald Trump’s self-styled “Liberation Day” has finally arrived. After four straight failures to kick off Donald Trump’s “day one” tariffs that were supposed to be implemented when President Trump assumed office 72 days ago, Trump’s team is slated to finally unveil a sweeping, lopsided package of “reciprocal” tariffs.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.