NFP could be positive for the USD - CIBC

On Friday, the US official employment report will be released. Analysts at CIBC, expect non-farm payroll to show a gain of 175K in August, above consensus. 

Key Quotes: 

“Job creation in the US has been decelerating since the latter half of 2018, but is still running above growth in the workforce. While the headline employment figure in August will be boosted by roughly 40,000 from temporary hiring for the 2020 decennial census, stripping out those jobs will reveal a further slowdown. That’s in line with other indicators of activity that show the US economy cooling, including the slowdown in aggregate hours worked and business investment.”

“With initial jobless claims near their cyclical low, and jobs reported to have been plentiful in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey, the US labor market remains healthy. Moreover, a 0.2% monthly gain in wages will translate into 3.4% annual wage growth, a two tick acceleration from the prior month.”

“Although job growth is set to continue to slow to a pace that is more closely aligned with growth in the labor force, higher wages, lower interest rates, and a savings cushion should allow consumer spending to remain reasonably healthy.”

“We are above the consensus on payrolls which would be positive for the USD and see yields rise.”